By Hastings Wyman
Money isn’t everything, but it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place. As in life, that’s not entirely true, but in politics, the ability of candidates to raise money is an important indicator of his or her prospects, in either a primary or the General Election.
Based on money alone, both the cash-on-hand at the end of the 1st Quarter as well as the amount of money raised so far, Democrats are poised to flip seven and maybe eight Republican congressional seats in the South in November.
In some districts, such as Georgia’s 7th, Kentucky’s 6th, Texas’s 7th, and Virginia’s 7th and 10th, all of which could flip from Red to Blue, the amount of cash-on-hand may not be the key figure. Rather, the amount raised so far indicates not only the candidate’s ability to raise money, but also the confidence that donors – individuals or organizations – have in that candidate’s prospects. And the money raised will ultimately finance the campaign, from television spots to polling to get-out-the-vote operations.
Other districts that look good for the Democrats moneywise include Florida 7, vacated by US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), where Democratic candidates have raised big money – three of them bringing in more than $1 million each while the three GOPers together raised $1 million.
In two North Carolina districts, the 9th and the 13th, the Republican incumbents have not matched the fundraising of their Democratic challengers. The challengers also have more cash-on-hand.
In some districts, the Democrats’ fundraising edge may be deceptive. If the Democrats are in a contested primary, they may have to spend heavily to win the nomination, leaving their funds depleted as November 6 draws near. In others, the primary campaign may be so heated that it will be difficult to unite the party faithful in the General Election.
The Republicans are ponying up in some key contests; the GOP campaigns in Florida’s 16th, 18th and 26th Districts are good examples.
The bottom line, however, is that the Democrats’ enthusiasm is showing up in their campaign bank accounts. In many cases, Republican incumbents are bringing in respectable amounts, but not enough to ensure their reelection in this tumultuous year.
There is a lot of time left, but for now, the GOP, the Grand Old Party of big money, isn’t the party of fat campaign accounts. This year, that title belongs to the Democrats. Stay tuned!
All the numbers are from the Federal Election Commission. The 1st Quarter numbers include all funds raised in this election cycle. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk.
District/candidates 1st Quarter Cash-on-hand
AL 2: June 5 primary
Martha Roby/R* $1,314,000 $821,000
Bobby Neal Bright Sr./R 345,000 330,000
Barry Moore/R 92,000 5,000
Rich Hobson/R 45,000 28,000
Tabitha Isner/D 130,000 77,000
AR 2
French Hill/R* $1,300,000 $1,534,000
Clarke Tucker/D 505,000 445,000
Paul Spencer/D 251,000 120,000
Gwen Combs/D 26,000 8,000
FL 6/OPEN: August 28 primary
John Ward/R $912,000 $709,000
Michael Waltz/R 707,000 653,000
Nancy Soderberg/D 926,000 595,000
Stephen Sevigny/D 251,000 227,000
John Upchurch/D 149,000 124,000
FL 7: August 28 primary
Stephanie Murphy/D* $1,774,000 $1,283,000
Scott Sturgill/R 520,000 366,000
Mike Miller/R 327,000 271,000
FL 16: August 28 primary
Vern Buchanan/R* $1,471,000 $2,565,000
David Shapiro/D 652,000 498,000
Jan Schneider/D 67,000 80,000
FL 18: August 28 primary
Brian Mast/R* $2,920.000 $1,526,000
Lauren Baer/D 1,042,000 708,000
Pam Keith/D 359,000 50,000
Carla Spalding/Ind 267,000 85,000
FL 26:
Carlos Curbelo/R* $2,813,000 $2,101,000
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell/D 926,000 702,000
FL 27/OPEN: August 28 primary
Bruno Barreiro/R $541,000 $421,000
Maria Salazar/R 303,000 288,000
Stephen Marks/R 200,000 195,000
Donna Shalala/D 1,174,000 1,107,000
David Richardson/D 1,437,000 1,032,000
Matt Haggman/D 1,160,000 870,000
Mary Barzee Flores/D 729,000 399,000
Kristen Rosen Gonzalez/D 346,000 137,000
GA 6: June 25 primary
Karen Handel/R $7,340,000 $792,000
Bobby Kaple/D 558,000 415,000
Kevin Abel/D 460,000 327,000
GA 7: June 25 primary
Rob Woodall/R* $540,000 $472,000
David Kim/D 562,000 186,000
Ethan Pham/D 299,000 140,000
Carolyn Bourdeaux/D 472,000 276,000
KY 6: May 22 primary
Andy Barr/R* $2,255,000 $2,221,000
Amy McGrath/D 1,798,000 624,000
James Gray/D 1,138,000 826,000
NC 2: May 8 primary
George Holding/R* $1,614,000 $285,000
Ken Romley/D 572,000 62,000
Linda Coleman/D 141,000 63,000
NC 3: May 8 primary
Charles Jones/R* $351,000 $67,000
Scott Dacey/R 378,000 43,000
Philip Law/R 86,000 33,000
NC 9: May 8 primary
Robert Pittenger/R* $1,267,000 $200,000
Mark Harris/R 573,000 71,000
Daniel McCready/D 1,916,000 1,221,000
NC 13:
Theodore Budd/R* $877,000 $535,000
Kathy Manning/D 1.265,000 1,007,000
OK 1/OPEN: June 26 primary
Kevin Hern/R $1,096,000 $407,000
Andy Coleman/R 228,000 107,000
Tim Harris/R 249,000 130,000
Nathan Dahm/R 95,000 47,000
OK 2: June 26 primary
Markwayne Mullin/R* $945,000 $544,000
Jarrin Jackson/R 138,000 14,000
John McCarthy/R 114,000 67,000
OK 5: June 26 primary
Steve Russell/R* $485,000 $349,000
Kendra Horn/D 287,000 120,000
Tom Guild/D 54,000 38,000
SC 1: June 12 primary
Mark Sanford/R* $728,000 $1,715,000
Katie Arrington/R 583,000 387,000
Joe Cunningham/D 443,000 219,000
SC 5
Ralph Norman/R* $2,001,000 $408,000
Archie Parnell/R 1,694,000 415,000
TN 2/OPEN: August 2 primary
Jimmy Matlock/R $471,000 $312,000
Tim Burchett/R 380,000 239,000
Jason Emert/R 209,000 116,000
Joshua Williams/D 104,000 26,000
TN 6/OPEN: August 2 primary
John Rose/R $1,544,000 $1,017,000
Bob Curlew/R 1,315,000 1,074,000
Judd Matheny/R 216,000 16,000
TN 7/OPEN: August 2 primary
Mark Green/R $1,190,000 $769,000
Justin Kanew/D 211,000 127,000
Matt Reel/D 100,000 78,000
TX 7: May 22 runoff
John Culberson/R* $1,540,000 $921,000
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher/D 1,267,000 392,000
Laura Moser/D 1,069,000 92,000
TX 23: May 22 runoff
Will Hurd/R* $2,374,000 $1,564,000
Gina Ortiz Jones/D 1,025,000 322,000
Rick Trevino/D 40,000 15,000
TX 32: May 22 runoff
Pete Sessions/R* $2,054,000 $1,510,000
Colin Allred/D 829,000 220,000
Lillian Salerno/D 596,000 157,000
VA 5:
Tom Garrett/R* $434,000 $133,000
Leslie Cockburn/D 715,000 271,000
VA 6/OPEN: May 19 convention
Ben Cline/R $220,000 $59,000
Cynthia Dunbar/R 104,000 25,000
Chaz Haywood/R 52,000 16,000
VA 7: June 12 primary
David Brat/R* $913,000 $699,000
Daniel Ward/D 786,000 508,000
Abigail Spanberger/D 725,000 476,000
VA 10: June 12 primary
Barbara Comstock/R* $2,793,000 $1,822,000
Shak Hill/R 103,000 66,000
Alison Friedman/D 1,379,000 818,000
Daniel Helmer/D 895,000 516,000
Jennifer Wexton/D 928,000 631,000
Lindsey Stover/D 851,000 472,000
Paul Pelletier/D 398,000 191,000
Julia Biggins/D 103,000 66,000
Julien Modica/D 100 548,000