US House: Money, polls favor Democrats

US House: Money, polls favor Democrats

By Hastings Wyman –

It’s not over till it’s over, especially in this volatile age. But based on the financial reports in US House races in the South, and many polls from reputable pollsters, it is difficult not to see a very good night for the Democrats. While the generic outlook for the GOP and President Trump’s approval rating have improved over the past several weeks, the money and recent polling data in race after race, even in the conservative South, suggest a good night for the Resisters on Nov. 6.

One example of the Democratic advantage can be seen in fundraising. The total cash-on-hand for Republican candidates in the six open districts (R) comes to $2,326,000; the Democratic total in the same districts was $4,685,000. Similarly, the cash-on-hand for Republican incumbents totaled $15,191,000, almost matched by the Democratic challengers’ total of $14,339,000. Of course, more money has been raised and spent in October. Nevertheless, the Democratic financial advantage is clear.

Included in the chart below are money numbers from the Federal Election Commission. The 3rd Quarter numbers include all of the funds raised in this election cycle, through September 30. Incumbents are marked with an asterisk. Polling data is from Real Clear Politics (RCP). All of these seats are currently held by Republicans, except Florida 7.

District/candidates                                3rd Quarter                 Cash-on-hand

 

AR 2

French Hill/R*                                      $2,550,000                   $1,464,000

Clarke Tucker/D                                     1,671,000                        230,000

52R; 40D (Talk Business; Hendrix)

 

FL 6/OPEN

Michael Waltz/R                                       $1,032,000                   $465,000

Nancy Soderberg/D                                     1,980,000                    523,000

NO POLLS

 

FL 7

Stephanie Murphy/D*                               $2,958,000              $1,151,000

Mike Miller/R                                                542,000                     380,000

47D; 46R (St. Pete Polls)

 

FL 15/OPEN

Ross Spano/R                                           $440,000                     $166,000

Kirsten Carlson/D                                        906,000                      502,000

45R; 45D (BayNws9; SurveyUSA)

43R; 43D (NYT/Siena)

 

FL 18

Brian Mast/R*                                            $4,928,000             $1,446,000

Lauren Baer/D                                              3,267,000                   774,000

NO POLLS

 

FL 26

Carlos Curbelo/R*                                      $4,464,000               $1,570,000

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell/D                          3,277,000                     686,000

46R; 45D (Mason-Dixon)

44R; 45D (NYT/Siena)

 

FL 27/OPEN

Maria Salazar/R                                          $1,207,000                  $382,000

Donna Shalala/D                                           2,946,000                   439,000

44R; 42D (Mason-Dixon)

 

GA 6

Karen Handel/R*                                  $8,257,000                       $979,000

Lucy McBath/D                                                      1,276,000                       706,000

R49; D45 (NYT/Siena)

 

GA 7

Rob Woodall/R*                                         $1,019,000                 $548,000

Carolyn Bourdeaux/D                                  1,911,000                    821,000

49R; 43D (JMC Analytics)

 

KY 6

Andy Barr/R*                                       $4,393,000                    $1,299,000

Amy McGrath/D                                      6,691,000                         734,000

47R; 46D (NYT/Siena)

 

NC 9/OPEN

Mark Harris/R                                       $1,619,000                        $469,000

Daniel McCready/D                                4,329,000                       1,648,000

45D; 41R (Civitas/Srvy USA)

47R; 42D (NYT/Siena)

 

NC 13

Theodore Budd/R*                               $1,877,000                        $824,000

Kathy Manning/D                                   2,903,000                          976,000

45.5R; 41D (RCPavg)

 

SC 1/ OPEN

Katie Arrington/R                                 $1,265,000                        $339,000

Joe Cunningham/D                                 1,656,000                          543,000

NO POLLS

 

TN 4

Scott Desjarlais/R*                                     $479,000                    $389,000

Mariah Phillips/D                                         482,000                       170,000

NO POLLS

 

TX 7

John Culberson/R*                                   $2,825,000                 $1,054,000

Lizzie Pannill Fletcher/D                        4,605,000                      1,589,000

46R; 45D (NYT/Siena)

 

TX 23

Will Hurd/R*                                        $4,515,000                        $492,000

Gina Ortiz Jones/D                                 4,743,000                       1,241,000

51R; 43D (NYT/Siena)

 

TX 32

Pete Sessions/R*                                   $4,054,000                      $2,263,000

Colin Allred/D                                        4,238,000                       1,901,000

48R; 47R (NYT/Siena)

 

VA 2

Scott Taylor/R*                                    $3,148,000                       $492,000

Elaine Luria/D                                        3,193,000                      1,315,000

47.5R; 42.5D (RCPavg)

 

VA 5/Open

Denver Riggleman/R                              $913,000                        $505,000

Leslie Cockburn/D                               2,436,000                       1,030,000

R45; D46 (NYT/Siena)

 

VA 7

David Brat/R*                                      $2,359,000                   $1,339,000

Abigail Spanberger/D                             4,955,000                      1,604,000

47;47 tie (Monmouth)

47R;43D (NYT/Siena)

 

VA 10

Barbara Comstock/R*                          $5,100,000                   $1,032,000

Jennifer Wexton/D                                 4,559,000                     1,592,000

48D; 41R (NYT/Siena)

D56; R43 (Washington Post)