Dixie House seats: Dems outraising GOP

Dixie House seats: Dems outraising GOP

By Hastings Wyman –

 

The 1st Quarter fundraising reports are now completed and these early indications of the two parties’ prospects in November 2020 indicate that vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the South are doing a better job of bringing in contributions than Republicans in the same position.

There are 12 Southern Democratic incumbents, ten of whom are freshmen, who have been targeted for defeat by the National Republican Congressional Committee. The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has not reported any 1st Quarter totals for US Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) of Texas’ 7th District. The average ending cash-on-hand reported for the eleven other vulnerable Democrats is $525,000.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not released its US House targets for next year, but there are nine Southern Republicans who were elected in 2018 with less than 55% of the vote, a traditional measure for vulnerability in the next election. One of these, US Rep. Rob Woodall (R) of Georgia’s 7th District, is not running for reelection next year. The average cash-on-hand for the remaining eight is $344,000.

The difference gives the at-risk Democrats on average a $181,000 advantage in the financial horse race. As some wag once said, “Money isn’t everything, but it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place.” That’s not totally true in politics, but a candidate must have enough to get his or her message out, and the candidate with the most money certainly has an advantage.

The reason for this discrepancy isn’t clear. Certainly President Trump’s campaign is hoovering up a lot of money, but his total is less than that of all of the Democratic presidential combined. What is clear is that Republican congressional candidates – in the South and probably elsewhere as well – appear to be still suffering from the electoral mood of 2018. It is also clear that Democratic incumbents are determined to hold on to as many seats as possible, and maybe gain a few, next year.

 

Eight Republican US House seats at risk in 2020

 

AR 2  

French Hill: $331,000

 

FL 15

Ross Spano: $218,000

 

FL 18  

Brian Mast: $363,000

 

KY 6 

Andy Barr: $639,000

 

NC 13       

Theodore Budd: $305,000

 

TX 21

Chip Roy: $321,000

 

TX 23     

Will Hurd: $436,000

 

VA 5 

Denver Riggleman: $140,000

 

Eleven Democratic US House seats at risk in 2020

 

FL 7  

Stephanie Murphy: $244,000

 

FL 13

Charlie Crist: $1,974,000

 

FL 26

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell: $435,000

 

FL 27 

Donna Shalala: $229,000

 

GA 6      

Lucy McBath: $457,000

 

Oklahoma 5

Kendra Horn: $366,000

 

SC 1    

Joe Cunningham: $508,000

 

TX 32 

Colin Allred: $527,000

 

VA 2       

Elaine Luria: $263,000

 

VA 7   

Abigail Spanberger: $403,000

 

VA 10  

Jennifer Wexton: $371,000