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Crist-Rubio battle now the bellwether for direction of GOP in 2010

March 10, 2010 —

I knew that I must have been off pretty badly when I casually wrote in this national column  that Florida Governor Charlie Crist would be a good example of a Republican who the electorate could accept in critical swing states in the upcoming elections for Senate and the U.S. House. I’m used to getting a fair number of emails reacting to a column, but in this case I received hundreds and not one was complimentary of Crist. Even more shocking was that the emails came from around the nation, not just Florida.

But something has happened in Florida that now has me recognizing that voters do not, and rightfully so, think like political strategists and analysts. Governor Crist, the tan handsome and  silver haired politician who has literally waltzed his way up the political food chain in the Sunshine State has gone from enjoying a comfortable lead in the race for the GOP nomination for the U.S Senate in Florida just over a half a year ago, to now trailing his chief opponent by a sixty percent-to-twenty six percent margin (the rest are undecided).  And the InsiderAdvantage/ Florida Times-Union survey is not alone in providing such a startling gap. Just a day before our survey was released, PPP, a respected Democratic polling firm, showed a young and attractive former House Speaker Marci Rubio leading  by well over thirty percent.

So, is Governor Crist dead in the water? Not necessarily. If his campaign uses its significant war chest and takes the unconventional move of running ads related to various accusations they have made about Rubio, then Rubio’s favorable ratings may drop and Crist could make this a more balanced race. Rubio has certainly opened that door by airing television ads this week. But if Crist sits back to run the conventional  campaign, Rubio may have consolidated his lead by that time to such a level that no amount of tough ads in the spring or summer could save Crist. I still say this race will tighten up, but only if the Crist team gets moving now.

Regardless, this phenomomol shift in such a marquee race harkens back to columns I was writing last spring. The “Tea Party” movement is for real and moreover, symbolizes immense irritation among Republicans who feel that both the Democrats and their own party have become big spending elitititsts who are totally out of touch with the public.

The problems for the GOP is that the clear and strong shift to its more conservative (and I would argue, natural )base is a gamble when it comes top the Fall elections. For the moment it appears that the critical swing “independent” voters have run from the Democratic Party over a series of issues—ranging from spending to healthcare reform. That could mean that no matter how conservative a GOP nominee for a particular U.S. Senate or Congressional seat in a competitive state or district, could potentially win.  In fact, the argument could be made that, given the mood of the conservatives in the GOP, they would be likely to turn out to vote in such high numbers that independent voters wouldf be of less significance.

Then there is the other side of the equation. Things can change quickly these days. What if unemployment truly drops, GDP picks up, retail starts to recover, and the stock market stays on this current high? We have to remember that many of these “swing states” voted for Obama. In the case of Florida it was a matter of just one percent or so, but still, he won. Of course in Florida the leading Democratic candidate really isn’t even viewed as  having a chance against either Rubio or Crist—another difficulty for Crist to overcome as electability likely won’t be an issue.