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Crist an independent? Rubio on the defensive?

March 16, 2010 —

Sunshine State Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is way behind former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in the polls for the GOP’s US Senate primary. The latest InsiderAdvantage survey of Florida Republicans gives Rubio 60 percent to Crist’s 26 percent; similarly, a Public Policy Polling (D) survey shows Rubio with 60 percent, Crist with 28 percent.  However, if Crist runs as an independent, he gets 33 percent, to African-American US Rep. Kendrick Meek’s (D) 32 percent and Rubio’s 27 percent, according to a recent poll taken by Research 2000 for the left-of-center Daily Kos.

As recently as last weekend, Crist was continuing to insist that he is a Republican. “His true ideology is with the Republicans,” says University of South Florida political science Professor Susan MacManus, who believes he will stay with the GOP. MacManus notes Crist’s “three positions – lower taxes, less government and more freedom – that track back to his friendship with (former US Sen.) Connie Mack (R).” Adds MacManus, “People may disagree with the degree that he’s followed these principles, but the bottom line is that he’s stuck to them.”

The current behavior of the Crist campaign, his political allies, and of some of the Florida media is consistent with Crist running either as a GOPer or as an independent.

Several former state legislative leaders have recently attacked Rubio as far less conservative than he claims be, citing his support for various spending measures that benefited his constituents when he was a state lawmaker. And over the weekend, a blast of negative publicity besmirched Rubio’s image as a fresh-faced poster-boy for the “throw-the-rascals-out” conservatives, high-lighting a litany of Rubio’s self-indulgent use of state GOP and state legislative funds for a $130 haircut, a back wax, travel, meals, and payments to relatives for providing various services. (In one recent interview, Crist himself brought up the back wax.) Either line of attack could hurt Rubio with Republican voters.

In his defense, Rubio campaign advisor Todd Harris told a Fox News interviewer, “Every single thing Marco Rubio did was in accordance with both the letter and spirit, not only of Florida law, but of the policies and practices of the Republican Party of Florida.” Rubio will need that and more between now and the April 30 deadline if – as is expected – the money-flush Crist campaign hits the airwaves with an onslaught of negative TV spots detailing Rubio’s alleged use of other people’s money for personal luxuries and to benefit his relatives.

Knocking down Rubio’s favorables would help Crist either in the August primary or in the November General Election, but the polls indicate Rubio’s margin of safety is much deeper among registered Republicans than among all voters. So while proclaiming loyalty to a broad-based GOP, as in “the party of Abraham Lincoln, Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt,” as Crist said in a Washington Times interview last weekend, he is not putting all his eggs in the yes-I-am-conservative basket. For example, he has defended, not rescinded, his support for the Obama stimulus package, contending it is responsible for 87,000 jobs in Florida. Such a stance is consistent with an independent candidacy that could draw from moderates in both parties as well as voters not affiliated with either party.

Besides Crist’s chances of winning, another consideration is important to the Florida governor. “Crist wants to be a senator so he can be president,” says Barney Bishop, a long-time political insider and currently president of the Associated Industries of Florida; “As an independent, that would be hard.” So Bishop opines, “I bet he stays in the Republican Party and hopes he can eke out a victory.” This view may have been confirmed by last week’s announcement that two Georgia Republicans, Gov. Sonny Perdue and US Sen. Saxby Chambliss will host a fundraiser for Crist.

It is possible, of course, that Crist could win the office of senator as an independent, then immediately join the Republican caucus. Nevertheless, going against the official GOP establishment in his home state would be a significant barrier to getting on a national ticket.

Crist has not always had problems with Florida conservatives. In the early 1990s, then-state Sen. Crist (R) was known as “Chain Gang Charlie” for his hard-nose anti-crime proposals, including one to reestablish chain gangs in Florida, a reputation that propelled him into the state attorney general’s office.

Since then, however, he has frequently taken liberal positions that ruffled feathers on the Right. He angered business interests by hosting a climate change seminar that included a speech by Robert Kennedy, Jr., and by promoting the state-run Citizens Insurance Company as the insurer of last resort in response to the state’s hurricane-induced insurance crisis. And he angered many right-to-lifers in the highly publicized Terry Schiavo case involving a husband’s right to pull the plug on his brain-dead wife. Finally, “his ‘man-hug’ with Obama in South Florida was the last straw,” says Bishop, a reference to Crist’s warm greeting of President Obama when the governor endorsed his stimulus package.

The GOP has benefited from Crist’s moderation, however. He has reached out to minorities, winning 18 percent of the black vote in the 2006 governor’s race, high for a GOPer. Indeed, African-Americans accounted for about one-third of Crist’s margin over Jim Davis (D). This is not likely to help him this year, however. Few African Americans are registered Republicans, and whether Crist is on the ballot as an independent or as a Republican, few black voters would choose him over Meek.

But for most Republican voters, this is the year of the TEA Party, not the Big Tent. So how – and whether – Charlie Crist manages to shoot the 2010 electoral rapids remains to be seen.