| |
Reelection Or Recession? Reanalyzing The Second Rescue Plan Vote
By John A. Tures
Associate Professor of Political Science
LaGrange College
October 7, 2008 — Woody Allen once said “We stand today at a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.” For several representatives in Congress, Woody Allen’s choices looked pretty good. In the second vote on the 2008 “Emergency Economic Stabilization Act” (on October 3) each was faced with damaging his or her own reelection chances by reversing oneself on the September 29 vote, or possibly be credited with a choice that generated an American recession. Nevertheless, enough members of the House of Representatives did switch so that the bailout package passed by a 263-171 vote, whereas the bill failed a few days ago in a 205-228 roll call. Once again, the parties were split. Democrats cast 172 yeas and 63 nays. Republicans had 91 representatives vote yes, and the remaining 108 said no to the costly measure. In my LaGrange Daily News article of October 3, 2008, titled “Economic or Electoral Bailout,” I looked at whether those representatives with close races would be more likely to vote “no.” Of the 66 representatives in close races, according to the Cook Political Report, 50 voted “nay.” Generally, vulnerable GOPers were more likely to reject the measure, and 19 of 21 Southern incumbents in tight races voted against the bill. What did representatives with shaky electoral prospects do the second time around? Democrats in “toss-up” districts still voted against the bill 6-1. But those in “lean Democratic” and “likely Democratic” districts voted for the bill 13-9. Overall, nearly half of all Democrats in closely contested districts cast a “yes” vote, up from 37.9% in the first vote on the bill. Nervous Republican incumbents were still generally wary of supporting Bush’s package. Thirteen GOP representatives in close races voted in favor of the deal, while 23 voted to kill the bill. That’s 63% against the measure, but still a far cry from the 88% opposition to the bill among Republicans running scared that we saw back in September. In the South, there were 21 members of the House of Representatives facing tough reelection prospects (I updated the Cook Political Report to reflect their position on October 2). Of these, four voted for the bill: Jim Marshall (D-GA), Tim Mahoney (D-FL), John Yarmuth (D-KY) and Vern Buchanan (R-FL). The remaining 17 tried to eliminate the bill. These include Rick Keller (R-FL), Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Tom Feeney (R-FL), Robin Hayes (R-FL), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL), Sam Graves (R-MO), Thelma Drake (R-VA), Patrick McHenry (R-NC), John Culberson (R-TX) Michael McCaul (R-TX), Virgil Goode (R-VA), John Barrow (D-GA), Lincoln Davis (D-TN), Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX), Don Cazayoux (D-LA), Travis Childers (D-MS), and Nick Lampson (D-TX). While vulnerable Southern Democrats voted against the rescue plan by a 2-1 margin, the ratio of endangered Dixie Republican nays to yeas was 11:1. In conclusion, Southern Republicans and Southern Democrats in the toughest reelection battles were the strongest opponents of the bill. Perhaps Marshall and Mahoney will survive their gutsy votes against the trend, but the two most likely to face trouble are Democrat Congressman John Yarmuth of Kentucky and GOP Congressman Vern Buchanan of Florida. Their vote switches could come back to haunt them with charges of “flip flopping.” The question is whether or not they face despair or destruction over this bill. |
|
|
