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Texas: Is Cornyn Still Safe?

October 8, 2008 — US Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) has a history of tepid approval numbers which, considering that he’s stayed out of controversy and voted the wishes of his Lone Star constituents,  suggests he’s more of an unknown figure than an unpopular one. The former state Supreme Court justice is sober, serious and effective, but he is not colorful, politically or personally, in the tradition of such Texas politicians as Lyndon Johnson or John Tower.

The latest independent survey, taken in late September by Rasmussen Reports, showed Cornyn with a 50%-to-43% lead over his Democratic opponent, five-term state Rep. Rick Noriega (D). Cornyn’s seven-point lead and his failure to poll over 50% are not particularly impressive for an incumbent, especially since he’s down from an 11-point lead in August.

But Cornyn is not without assets, chiefly among them financial ones. Early in the campaign, he assembled a top-flight fundraising team, which has kept his re-election effort rolling in dough. Cornyn has released numbers showing that as of September 30, he had $7.23 million cash on hand. He is now airing his fourth television spot and has plenty of cash to keep’em coming.

By contrast, Noriega had $916,000 on hand at mid-year and has not released his total as of September 30. His campaign, however, has announced that he raised more than $1 million during the 3^rd Quarter. Hillary Clinton recently endorsed Noriega and headlined a fundraiser for him in McAllen, hosted by a long-time Clinton money man. Noriega has yet to go on television, although he has launched some videos on the Internet (he’s long been a favorite among liberal Texas bloggers). He does have an appealing resume. He’s a veteran of the war in Iraq and a lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard. He hails from Houston, where his wife is on the city council.

“The conventional wisdom here is that Noriega’s campaign has pretty much collapsed,” says Harvey Kronberg, editor of the Quorum Report, an Austin-based newsletter. “When you poll in South Texas, where the name Noriega should have some resonance, it doesn’t move the needle.”

Cornyn and Noriega have clashed on some key issues. Cornyn is a strong advocate of a border fence to help curb illegal immigration, a project that is popular in the counties adjacent to Mexico. As a result, the Republican incumbent has been endorsed by a number of South Texas politicos, including some Democrats and Hispanics. Noriega is strongly opposed to the fence, which on balance hurts more than helps him.

On another major issue, Cornyn voted for the Bush $700 billion “bail-out” or rescue plan, while Noriega has attacked it. If the plan appears to work in the month remaining to Election Day, Cornyn should benefit. If, however, the nation’s economy continues its steep decline, Noriega -- along with other Democrats -- should gain. “Right now,” says Kronberg, “Texas feels immune to what’s happening in the rest of the country, but if that changes, it could help Noriega.” The thinking is that while Barack Obama will lose Texas, Noriega would still benefit from an economically driven surge for Obama. Although Texas is not in play in the presidential election, Obama has a strong ground organization here, which has conducted voter registration drives in the state’s major cities.

Indeed, “there has been a blip in the polls for Obama, lifting down-ballot Democrats,” says a long time Austin observer of Texas politics, but “I just can’t imagine less than a low double-digit win for McCain, and more for Cornyn.” He adds, “Cornyn is ramping up his television while Noriega is not raising any money. And I don’t see any [yard] sign activity for Noriega, or anything like that.”

SPR rates the Texas Senate race Likely -- but not Safe -- Republican.