Home / News /

'…Know When To Walk Away, Know When To Run…'

May 13, 2008 — As the Kenny Rogers song suggests, in poker, you've got to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.  The game of politics is also a lot like card games as well.  The decision to run for office, or take a pass on a contest has far-reaching implications for the party, as well as a candidate's political future.

Just two years ago, neither Lt. Governor Mark Taylor nor Secretary of State Cathy Cox was willing to put aside their egos and step aside for the good of the party and their attempts to unseat Governor Sonny Perdue.  The result was a divisive primary, a bitter feeling that contributed to Perdue's easy victory in November, and two GOP pick-ups of statewide offices.

Now the full implications of that blunder are sinking in on the Georgia Democratic Party.  With Senator Johnny Isakson's "surprising" decision to stay in his office, the gubernatorial contest is wide open.  While several Republicans are ready to jump in, where does that leave the Democrats?  The leading candidate, far from being a known commodity, is a question mark.

Sure one of the two might take another stab at the race (and wouldn't it be funny if both butted heads again?).  But each is considered damaged goods.  Cox and Taylor have records of 0-1 in this department for this office, along with the bad taste of 2006 with the negative charges and countercharges fresh in the voters' minds.  Consider how strong the Democrats would have been with a reelected Cox or Taylor going up against the crowded Republican field?  That Democrat might have even been the "front-runner."

You'd think the Democrats would have learned their lesson on when to run with regards to this contest, but that's not the case.  Any decent analyst could have seen that regardless of Isakson's decision, Cagle was going to run for a different office in 2010.  So Jim Martin, the 2006 nominee who did as well as any Democrat could have in his first initial statewide run in a bad year for the party, was going to play it smart and wait for the position to open up, right?.  And why not?  He'd be the front-runner not only for the Democrats, but maybe for the Fall Contest (depending upon the GOP winner).

But no, Martin had to jump into the 2008 US Senate contest.  Not only would he have to face an established candidate (Vernon Jones) but also a "scrappy outside challenger" (Dale Cardwell), in addition to an incumbent fortified with a heavy war chest from a national party desperate to keep from losing incumbents as they did in 2006.

The wisdom of Martin's move (or lack thereof) is evident in a recent poll from an InsiderAdvantage poll.  It showed Jones with 21% of the vote and Cardwell with 14% of the vote.  Martin doesn't even figure into the top three (trailing even Josh Lanier) with a whopping 3% of the poll.