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Grits
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
May 16, 2008 — Dixie’s Republican Senators in Trouble? The recent Democratic victories in two special congressional elections in Louisiana and Mississippi could be a harbinger of things to come in some of this year’s Southern US Senate races. In Virginia, popular Democratic former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is already a heavy favorite to claim the seat to be vacated by retiring US Sen. John Warner (R). In several other states where the GOP’s incumbents have been considered all but safe, polls show significance weakness for US Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX). ● In Kentucky, McConnell had 48% to 38% for millionaire and likely Democratic Primary winner Bruce Lunsford, according to a Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT poll taken by Research 2000. A ten-point lead isn’t to be sneezed at; on the other hand, for a three-term senator to be running below 50% isn’t cool. ● In North Carolina, a Rasmussen poll taken just after the Democratic Primary showed challenger Kay Hagan with 48% to Dole’s 47% and a Public Policy Polling survey showed Dole with a tepid 48%-41% lead-- over her relatively unknown opponent. In an Elon University Poll, taken in mid-April, 37% said Dole deserves re-election to 45% who said it’s time for a new person. ● In Texas, where the Obama campaign has launched a voter registration drive in the state’s four largest cities, the most recent Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Cornyn (R) with 47% to challenger Rick Noriega’s (D) 43%. And a poll taken for the liberal-leaning Daily Kos website showed Cornyn with a similar 48%-to-44% lead, again, a poor showing for an the incumbent against a little-known foe. Cornyn, like Dole and McConnell, has been weak in opinion surveys for months. ● And after the Democratic victories in Louisiana and Mississippi, the GOP is likely to have a very difficult time defeating US Sen. Mary Landrieu D-LA) or perhaps even keeping in office recently appointed US Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), whose district just elected a Democrat to replace him in congress. ● But not all is doom-and-gloom for Dixie Republicans. In Georgia, US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) led each of the five Democrats who are trying for the Democratic nomination by large margins -- from 19% to 23%. In his closest race, Chambliss had 58%, DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D) 29%. Georgia’s Broun Gets National Leadership Support Freshman US Rep. Paul Broun (R), whose tenuous hold on his congressional seat is getting a well-financed primary challenge from state Rep. Barry Fleming (R), is benefiting from substantial support from the GOP leadership in Congress. Roll Call newspaper reports that House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is hosting a July 8 fundraiser for Broun at Washington’s Republican watering hole, the Capitol Hill Club. Broun has also gotten support -- and $13,500 -- from the political action committees of National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (OK) and Chief Deputy Minority Whip Eric Cantor (VA). Florida Democrats Claim Hispanic Gains Alone among the states with a large Latino population, Florida has stood out for having more Hispanic Republicans than Hispanic Democrats, due mainly to the Sunshine State’s Cuban-American community and its fierce anti-Castro stance. This year, however, Democrats have overtaken Republicans among Hispanic voters. Statistics released to Florida’s political parties show there are now 418,339 (35.5%) Latino Democrats to 415,086 (35.2%) Latino Republicans. In addition, 29.3% of Florida’s Hispanic voters are registered as independents. The change has been significant; only two years ago, the GOP had a 50,000 advantage among the state’s Hispanic voters. |
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