GOP gunning for a sweep of eight Southern Senate seats
By Gary Reese
August 31, 2010 — Most analysts say the Democrats don’t need to win any of the eight US Senate seats up for election this fall in the South to keep their majority. That’s a good thing for the Democrats, because polls indicate their nominees are within five percentage points only in the races in Florida and Kentucky. Here are the RealClearPolitics composite polls as of Aug. 31. (Percentages don’t add up to 100 because minor candidates and undecided percentages aren’t included. Percentages are rounded off.) Alabama
Sen. Richard Shelby (R) 60 percent
William Barnes (D) 28 percent Arkansas
John Boozman (R) 59 percent
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) 31 percent Florida
Marco Rubio (R) 36 percent
Charlie Crist (I) 33 percent
Kendrick Meek (D) 18 percent Georgia (InsiderAdvantage poll)
Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 47 percent
Michael Thurmond (D) 35 percent Kentucky
Rand Paul (R) 47 percent
Jack Conway (D) 42 percent Louisiana
Sen. David Vittner (R) 51 percent
Charlie Melanchon (D) 37 percent Oklahoma
Sen. Tom Coburn (R) 67 percent
Jim Rogers (D) 24 percent South Carolina
Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 63 percent
Alvin Greene (D) 19 percent If Southern Senate races are a fair indicator, then the notion that 2010 is about throwing out incumbents of all political stripes is bosh. There are six incumbents running in the South. Only one of them – the lone Democrat, Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas– appears headed for defeat. The five Republican incumbents are leading in the polls by sometimes astounding margins: Shelby of Alabama (32 points); Isakson of Georgia (12 points); Vittner of Louisiana (14 points); Coburn of Oklahoma (43 percent); and DeMint of South Carolina (44 points). The Florida race has gotten a lot of ink and pixels, including on this website. As we pointed out days ago, Congressman Kendrick Meek’s bitter struggle against billionaire Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary provided a badly needed resurgence of media attention for Meek. But the gain for Meek may be a loss for Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running as an independent. Polls following the Aug. 24 Florida primaries indicate that some Democratic and perhaps independent voters who were considering a vote for Crist are now drifting to Meek. Because Republican voters more and more are gravitating to Rubio, Crist seems to be faltering in the polls. Further polls should tell us more soon. In Kentucky, Democrats continue to hope that they can steal a seat now held by the Republicans. (Sen. Jim Bunning is retiring.) They are portraying GOP nominee Rand Paul, a self-declared libertarian, as a wack job. Paul has on occasion accommodated the Democrats by displaying a classic case of rookie's foot-in-mouth disease, although he has grown wiser of late. Democrat Jack Conway, the Kentucky attorney general, had to voice support for ObamaCare and cap-and-trade legislation in order to win the closely contested Democratic primary. That won't help in Novenber. His hopes of beating Paul depend on his somehow juicing up the turnout of the party’s base in big cities (Louisville, Lexington), and in the coal-mining regions. Either that, or hoping for another surge of misspeak from Paul. Projection: The GOP wins all eight seats. |
