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Arkansas: Halter vs. Lincoln

March 9, 2010 —

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter (D) is challenging two-term US Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) for the Democratic US Senate nomination in Arkansas’s May 18 primary. Although Lincoln’s voting record is moderately left of center – 66% liberal, 35% conservative, says the National Journal, Democratic liberals in and out of Arkansas have been angry with her for not being more supportive of the Obama Administration’s domestic agenda.

As soon as Halter got in the race, the Arkansas AFL-CIO endorsed him. While unions have significant clout among Arkansas Democrats, they don’t have enough to defeat her. But in addition, labor unions across the country and liberal groups, including Moveon.org, pitched in substantial sums of money to try to defeat the lawmaker who they believe has not been there for President Obama. How much these groups will put into Halter’s coffers remains to be seen, though reports indicated it was at least $3.6 million immediately after he entered the race. .

There is, nevertheless, a loose consensus among observers of Arkansas politics that Halter is unlikely to defeat incumbent Lincoln in the primary, and even should he win the nomination, that he would have an even weaker shot in the General Election. A poll of Arkansas Democrats taken late last year by Research 2000 for the Daily Kos showed Lincoln with 42%, Halter 26%. And more recent surveys show Halter running a weaker race against the GOP contenders than Lincoln. This begs the question whether Halter’s liberal backers are more anxious to punish Lincoln for not hewing to her party’s line than to actually electing Halter. The unions, for example, are angry with her for opposing the card-check legislation, probably more than for her last minute support for the Senate health care bill.

One factor working against Halter is that many established Democratic politicos don’t like him, viewing him as an outsider who won the state’s number two spot in 2006, with clever TV spots, over more experienced candidates. For most of the 1990s, during President Clinton’s Administration, Halter worked in Washington in the Office of Management and Budget and in the Social Security Administration.

Nevertheless, Halter does have support among many rank and file Democrats; moreover, as noted, he’ll have the money to run a first class campaign, and he showed in 2006 that he knows how to run one. So Lincoln can’t relax until the November campaign begins.

Lincoln, despite her embattled status among the state’s liberals and conservatives, has a number of advantages, at least in the primary. For months now, as her political vulnerability deepened, Lincoln has stumped the state, spending every available moment meeting, greeting and speaking to Razorback State voters, as well as announcing federal grants to the state and to local communities. She will run a well-financed campaign as well, and had some $5 million on hand by the end of last year (all the Republicans then running had a total of about $1 million). Another boost to Lincoln, says a long-time Little Rock political insider, is that “she’s done more favors for county chairs, sheriffs and county judges,” chits she can call in in a primary.

With the primary only a little more than two months away, the two campaigns are already in high gear. Both Democrats have launched TV spots, though not major buys. In her first spot, Lincoln talked about “voting against giving more money to Wall Street” and other costly proposals, ending with “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.” And in a press release, Lincoln went on offense against Halter, charging that the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) paid off his old campaign debts, despite the fact that Halter is a “multi-millionaire.” And Halter’s theme in a video announcing his candidacy was that “Washington is broken… Bailing out Wall Street… protecting insurance company profits instead of patients.”

“My best guess,” says the Little Rock insider, “is that she wins the primary and has a tough, tough time in the General Election.”

Even without a primary challenge, Lincoln is vulnerable in November. A March 1 Rasmussen Reports poll showed her trailing four Republicans -- 5 points behind state Sen. Gilbert Baker, 2 points behind businessman Curtis Coleman , 5 points behind state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren, 7 points behind state Sen. Jim Holt and 9 points behind US Rep. John Boozman. Halter ran an even weaker race against the GOPers. Her vulnerability has persuaded eight Republicans to file for her Senate seat, the most ever to file in either party in Arkansas history. (Her March numbers, it should be noted, are better than her January numbers.)

As for Halter, while he is taking the money from groups upset with Lincoln’s voting record as too conservative, so far he has not waved aloft the leftist banner. “He’s been kind of coy,” says the insider, who notes that on health care, for example, Halter says he wants to see the final bill before committing one way or another. Which begs the question, in the unlikely event that Halter beats Lincoln in the Democratic Primary, then confounds the experts and wins in November, will these same liberal groups be looking around for a challenger for the not-left-enough freshman US Sen. Halter (D) in 2016?