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Republican Senators Well-Funded
By Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
October 23, 2008 — The 3rd Quarter financial reports from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) show that the South’s incumbent senators may be showing weak numbers in opinion polls, but in the money chase, which counts for a lot, the GOPers are in good shape. In eleven key US Senate races, nine have Republican incumbents; all nine have significant leads in both money raised and cash on hand. Whether these flush war chests will enable some of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents to survive the strong Democratic trend -- in both Southern states as well as nationwide -- remains to be seen. Texas Republican John Cornyn raised the most money of any candidate, Republican or Democrat, gathering nearly $17 million. Cornyn, who has a large state to reach via television, still had $7.3 million on hand as of September 30. His opponent, state Rep. Rick Noriega (D), had just under $1 million. Cornyn is a heavy favorite. In Kentucky, embattled US Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) had $5.7 million on hand, to millionaire businessman Bruce Lunsford’s (D) $1.2 million. Lunsford, however, can write big personal checks and the race remains close. In North Carolina, in the high-profile race between US Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and state Sen. Kay Hagan (D), Dole had $1.7 million on hand, to Hagan’s $680,000. Hagan, however, continues to lead in opinion polls. Similarly, in Georgia, US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) had $1.2 million on hand to former state Rep. Jim Martin’s (D) $92,000, but polls show the race is neck and neck. The same holds true in Mississippi, where US Sen. Roger Wicker (R) had $1.7 million on hand, to former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove’s (D) $460,000, but polls show a close race. In South Carolina, influential US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has raised more than $8 million; however, Bob Conley (D), his under-funded, little-known, conservative opponent is holding Graham to single-digit leads in some polls, presumably a reflection of the overall Democratic trend stemming from the recent economic turmoil. The two Democrats ahead in money raising are Louisiana’s US Sen. Mary Landrieu, once considered vulnerable to a GOP challenge by state Treasurer John N. Kennedy. But Landrieu raised almost twice as much as Kennedy -- $9.5 million to $5.2 million and also ended the 3rd Quarter on September 30 with substantially more cash-on-hand: $2.4 million to nearly $1.3 million for Kennedy. Of note: The national GOP has withdrawn its television spots in Louisiana to use the money in more promising races. The second Democrat leading in fundraising is Virginia’s Mark Warner, a popular former governor running in an open seat. Warner, a millionaire, has raised $12.3 million and had $3.6 million. FEC numbers for Warner’s opponent, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), numbers were not available. In addition to a money lead, Warner has led Gilmore by twenty to thirty points in opinion polls throughout the campaign. Here are the 3rd Quarter FEC numbers in the eleven key races: Net receipts On hand *Incumbents Alabama Jeff Sessions (R)* $5,167,000 $4,351,000 Vivian Figures (D) 303,000 13,000 Georgia Saxby Chambliss (R)* 10,632,000 1,188,000 Jim Martin (D) na 62,000 Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R)* na $5.7 million** Bruce Lunsford (D) na $1.2 million**
Louisiana Mary Landrieu (D)* 9,520,000 2,395,000 John Kennedy (R) 5,227,000 1,255,000 Mississippi Roger Wicker (R)* 4,450,000 1,683,000 Roger Musgrove (D) na 460,000 Oklahoma James Inhofe (R)* 5,673,000 1,992,000 Andrew Rice (D) 2,325,000 484,000 South Carolina Lindsey Graham (R)* 8,071,000 3,799,000 Bob Conley (D) na na Tennessee Lamar Alexander (R)* 7,596,000 3,526,000 Bob Tuke (D) 636,000 62,000 Texas John Cornyn (R)* 16,859,000 7,322,000 Rick Noriega (D) na 951,000 Virginia James Gilmore (R) na na Mark Warner (D) 11,993,000 3,608,000 ** Precise number not yet available. |
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