New InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll: Georgia a tossup
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
October 24, 2008 — A new InsiderAdvantage / Poll Position survey shows Georgia is a toss-up state in both the U.S. Senate and presidential campaigns.
In the presidential race, Barack Obama has a slight edge over John McCain, although it is within the margin of error. In the U.S. Senate race, Saxby Chambliss has a 2-point edge over Jim Martin, although it, too, is within the margin of error.
The two polls were conducted last night, each with 615 registered, likely voters. The margin of errors for both is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent
Matt Towery on the presidential race:
“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.
“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.
“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”
Towery on the U.S. Senate race: “The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.”