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October 3, 2008 — Mississippi and Texas: We Told You So

Pardon us for tootin’ our own horn, but on Monday, September 29, we said, “Look for increasingly close US Senate contests in Mississippi, where US Sen. Roger Wicker (R) faces former governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), and even in Texas, where US Sen. John Cornyn (R) is getting a feisty-but-underfunded challenge from state Rep. Rick Noriega (D).” Now comes Rasmussen Reports with October 1 polls showing significantly tighter US Senate races in both states. In Mississippi, it’s now a virtual tie between US Sen. Roger Wicker (R), with 49%, and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) with 47%. And in Texas, Rasmussen gives US Sen. John Cornyn (R) an unimpressive 50% to 43% lead over his relatively unknown challenger, state Rep. Rick Noriega (D). Until this survey, Cornyn had led by double-digits in every Rasmussen poll since May.

Georgia: A Word to the Wise

The next Southern senate race to get close is likely to be Georgia, where US Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) faces a challenge from former state Rep. Jim Martin (D). One clue: The presidential race in the Peach State is tightening: It’s McCain 50%, Obama 44%, says the InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey taken September 30. Another clue: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is getting publicly involved in the Georgia Senate race, recently releasing a Mellman Group (D) poll that showed Chambliss with a weak 37%-34% lead.

Florida: Feeney in Tough Race, Says Poll (D)

Three-term US Rep. Tom Feeney (R), who represents Florida’s 24^th District (Orlando, etc.), has only a one-point lead over former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). It’s 43% for Feeney, 42% for Kosmas, according to a poll taken for Kosmas by Hamilton Campaigns September 11-14. Feeney’s weakness can be attributed to his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which is still under investigation by the FBI. In 2003, Feeney took a golfing trip to Scotland with Abramoff. As of mid-year, Kosmas, who has financial support from Emily’s List, had $936,000 on hand to Feeney’s $795,000.

Virginia: Nye Getting Close, Says Poll (D)

In Virginia’s 2^nd District (Virginia Beach, etc.), two-term US Rep. Thelma Drake (R) has only a five-point lead over former Foreign Service Officer Glenn Nye (D), says a poll taken for Nye’s campaign. It’s 45% for Drake, 40% for Nye. Meanwhile, on Saturday, Barack Obama will speak at a rally in nearby Newport News, a likely boost to African-American turn-out and to Nye in this 21% black district.

Kentucky: Guthrie Leads in SurveyUSA Poll

The GOP is also doing well in the open seat in Kentucky’s 2^nd District (Owensboro, etc.), where US Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is retiring. State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) is leading state Sen. David Boswell (D) by 49% to 43%, says a SurveyUSA poll taken for WHAS-TV September 24-25. In the same firm’s poll taken June 27-29, Democrat Boswell led 47% to 44%, indicating a significant shift to the GOP.

North Carolina: McCrory Leads in Governor’s Race

Not all the polls are showing Democratic victories. It’s 44% for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) to 41% for Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue (D), says a Public Policy Polling (D) survey taken September 28-29. McCrory gets solid support from Republicans (84% to 7%); Perdue gets weaker backing from Democrats (69% to 19%).

Kentucky: Beshear Back in the Pink