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Negative barrage hitting GOP candidates

October 5, 2010 —

Across the nation and especially in the South, Democratic candidates have launched a full-scale assault of personal attacks on their Republican opponents. With the policies of the Obama Administration and the Democratic congress offering them little in the way of campaign ammunition, the Democrats – mostly incumbents – are relying on an onslaught of politically damaging charges, mostly related to past business and financial dealings of the GOP standard bearers. The personal-attack strategy is present in Democratic congressional, senatorial and gubernatorial campaigns in virtually every Southern state. This, of course, is not a Southern strategy. Democratic personal attacks have dominated campaigns in California, Delaware, New York and elsewhere, but it is especially useful in Dixie, where the Obama Administration is so unpopular. 

In Florida, Rick Scott, the Republican nominee for governor, is catching flak because his former health care company was fined $1.7 billion for Medicare fraud. In Georgia, the Atlanta Journal and Constitution uncovered $2.3 million in previously undisclosed loans taken out by Nathan Deal, the Republican nominee for governor, now the subject of hard-hitting TV spots by former Gov. Roy Barnes, the Democratic nominee. In Arkansas, former state Rep. Jim Keet, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, was hurt badly when it was revealed he had failed to pay some past state taxes. In Louisiana – though it’s not a recent scandal – US Sen. David Vitter (R) is the subject of lurid two-minute long television spot portraying his alleged visit to a prostitute. In Kentucky, Democrats have gone back to GOP Senate nominee Rand Paul’s college days to find scandals, as well as jumping on such goofs his comment that drug abuse is not a big issue in this campaign. Paul later backtracked, which doesn’t look good either. In South Carolina, GOP nominee for governor Nikki Haley has been hit for her former firm’s late payment of state sales taxes.

It’s not just alleged political or financial misdeeds that have become grist for Democratic campaigns. In at least two congressional races, divorces of GOP candidates have become campaign fodder. In Tennessee’s 4^th District (Sewanee, etc.), four-term US Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) is using a decade old divorce against his opponent, physician Scott DesJarlais. Washington’s Roll Call newspaper published accusations from motions filed by DesJarlias’s then-wife alleging harassment, intimidation and physical abuse, charges which DesJarlais has firmly denied. And in Georgia’s 8^th District, a Democratic activist has filed a motion to open the sealed divorce file of the Republican congressional nominee, state Rep. Austin Scott.

Whether the attacks will successfully change the subject from the Obama Administration’s policies to the GOP challengers’ problems is far from certain. Democratic insiders “claim the strategy is working,” says Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who notes there are places where it appears to be working and others where it does not. In Kentucky’s Senate race, for example, the drum-beat of anti-Rand Paul (R) attacks is having an effect, reducing his margin from 54 percent-39 percent to 49/38 in several weeks. In Kentucky’s 6^th District (Lexington, etc.), US Rep. Ben Chandler (D) “went negative early and stayed that way,” notes veteran political writer Al Cross. As a result, Chandler is viewed favorably by 61 percent of voters, unfavorably by 31 percent; for Barr, the ratio is 44-31, though the race is still tight.

However, in some races there’s little evidence the attacks are preventing Republican victories. In Florida, despite the negative attacks, Scott leads 46 percent to 41 percent in the governor’s race. (“The intensity on the side of the Republican voters is tremendous,” says Barney Bishop of Tallahassee, president of Associated Industries of Florida.) In Georgia, an InsiderAdvantage survey taken September 27, well after the story of Deal’s financial problems broke, showed Deal with 45 percent, Barnes 37 percent and Libertarian John Monds 5 percent. The Deal campaign received another boost last week when former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney campaigned with him in the Peach State, giving the beleaguered Deal the imprimatur of a top-rank establishment GOPer. And in some races, the personal-attack strategy is backfiring, such as in Florida’s 8th District (Orlando, etc.), where freshman Alan Grayson’s (D) ad dubbing his opponent, former state lawmaker Dan Webster (R), “Taliban Dan,” misstated his record on some women’s issues.

For some of the attacks, the Democrats themselves – either in Washington or on the state or district level – have done the necessary digging into the past activities of Republican candidates. In others, the news media – mostly newspapers – have done the negative research. It is noteworthy that even in hotly contested Republican primaries, few of the political time-bombs were uncovered and defused, leaving the GOP with some nominees who are weaker than they were when they were nominated. Moreover, because most of the Democrats, especially the freshmen, anticipated a tough reelection battle and raised flush war chests, their campaigns – aided by Washington-based Democratic committees – have well-funded advertising budgets to make sure the negative message gets out there.

The GOP is not responding in kind, but continues to hammer away at the policies of President Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. “Pretty much all of our candidates are running on the issues,” says National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Andy Sere. “There are plenty of negative ads, but all on the issues, on votes and quotes.” He adds, “Personal attacks are not relevant to unemployment.” There are a couple of exceptions. In Georgia’s 2^nd District (Albany, etc.), US Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) is under fire for giving Congressional Black Caucus scholarships to relatives. And in North Carolina’s 11^th District (Asheville, etc.), Health Shuler (D)’s past controversy concerning his contacting the TVA about a land deal in which he had an interest is coming up again.

There is a great irony here. The guy who virtually invented modern negative campaigning, the late Lee Atwater, was a top political advisor to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush and later chairman of the Republican National Committee. At the time he was denounced by Democrats, but if imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, today they are paying him belated homage. And if the Democratic onslaught of personal attacks succeeds in stemming the GOP tide this year, look for both parties to dip deep into the mud bucket in 2012.