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The Myth of the Bin-Laden Videotape

October 6, 2008 — While we debate about will be the decisive factor of the 2008 election, we might revisit an argument left over from the last one, should history repeat itself.  It's the myth of the Osama bin-Laden pre-election videotape.  Nearly every publication on the subject will tell you it cinched President George W. Bush's reelection.  But did it?

On October 29, 2004 al-Jazeera received a videotape address by Osama bin-Laden to the American people.  It mocked Bush several times for electoral fraud, claiming al-Qaeda hated freedom, reading the book on 9/11 and supporting unfree countries, then concluded with "Your security does not lie in the hands of Kerry, Bush, or al-Qaeda.  Your security is in your own hands."

Analysts from the CIA, journalists like Ron Suskind, and networks like Fox News were quick to claim that the videotape would help Bush.  Reasons ranged from bin-Laden being more critical of Bush and his family to serving as a reminder of the threat posed by terrorism, which Bush made more of an issue than Kerry did.

A NBC/Wall-Street Journal poll claimed twice as many respondents said the tape made them more likely to vote for Bush.  A Newsweek poll indicated a six point lead (50-44) for Bush in the aftermath of the videotape, after it was claimed that the two candidates were "dead even."  Even Senator John Kerry believes that tape cost him the election, as noted in Glen Johnson’s Associated Press article "October remains the month for political surprises."  A host of conspiracy theorists have alleged that the tape was faked.

I've often wondered about the impact of this videotape.  First, it reminded voters that Bush had not yet caught the worst terrorist to ever strike America.  Second, Newsweek wasn't the only one sampling the American people.  So I looked at the nine different polls taken between October 29 and November 1 (Marist, GW Battleground, TIPP, CBS News, Harris, Fox News, Reuters/Zogby, CNN/USA and NBC/Wall Street Journal).  Then I also analyzed the other 41 polls taken in October, before the video was released.

I found that in the 41 polls taken before the bin-Laden video, Bush held an average lead of 2.51 points.  In fact, in the nine polls taken between October 22 and October 29, the President's average lead was 2.89 points.  After the bin-Laden message was released, Bush's lead shrank in the nine polls down to 0.9 points (his final margin of victory on Election Day was 1.5 points).

Think there was some anti-Democratic Party bias?  Well, the Fox News poll taken between October 30 and 31 showed Kerry with a 48%-46% lead.  On October 17-18 (well before the bin-Laden videotape was aired), that Fox News poll lead showed the President with a commanding 49%-42% lead.