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The Democrats have their own 'uncivil' war brewing

November 16, 2009 — Most folks don’t know that Democrats won more votes than Abraham Lincoln in the 1860 election on the eve of the Civil War.  But given that those popular votes were split between Stephen Douglas and John C. Breckinridge, Lincoln was able to take advantage of the division and win the Electoral College, even though he had less than 40% of the popular vote.  Will Democrats face a similar “uncivil war” in 2010, over those health care reform bill votes?

We all “know” that the Republicans are in deep trouble, even after the 2009 gubernatorial election sweep.  That’s because of the 23^rd Congressional District of New York, where a Conservative Party nominee ousted a Republican moderate, only to lose to a weak Democratic Party opponent.  For the first time since 1872, a Democrat will represent that upstate New York district. 

Now we hear from the media how Tea Party activists are going to oust more Republican moderates, essentially handing a series of elections to the Democrats, right?  Politico’s article “Uncivil War”  highlights efforts to target Florida Senate candidate Charlie Crist, Illinois Senate candidate Mark Kirk, South Carolina Congressman Bob Inglis, Utah Senator Bob Bennett, and former Connecticut Senatorial nominee Rob Simmons.

In The Daily Beast’s article “The Plot to Purge GOP Moderates” we hear about Delaware, California, Maine, and other races where moderates have a bullseye on their backs, not only from activists, but conservative presidential candidates like Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint.  In fact, I can go to realclearpolitics.com or Yahoo News and find a dozen more such stories.

All of these articles might be correct, but they are missing what’s going on with the Democrats.  And such an “uncivil war” might be found on the left, not just the right.  Take for example Maryland Congressman Al Wynn, bounced by Donna Edwards during the last election cycle for being too pro-business.  According to the American Conservative, Wynn’s 2006 voting record was nearly three times more moderate than Edwards’ since she took over.

Georgia Rep John Barrow faced a similar problem last year when challenged on the left by Regina Thomas in the primary.  Though Barrow prevailed, he now has to vote almost 50% less conservative than his lifetime average.  And Thomas may run against him again next year.

Barrow is hardly the only case of Democratic Party members of Congress being challenged on the left by a party growing increasingly disdainful of dissent.  Florida Congressman Allen Boyd (Lifetime ACU score of 35.53) is facing a challenge from a more liberal candidate Al Lawson, the State Senate Minority Leader.  Ditto Ciro Rodriguez (ACU score of 24 in 2008), North Carolina Reps G. K. Butterfield and Mike McIntyre (two of the three most moderate congressmen in the North Carolina delegation).  And it is still early in the election cycle.  There are whispers that Arkansas Lt. Governor Bill Halter might “primary” Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln over her health care vote.

In fact, among the 39 House Democrats who voted against the bill, Democrats are talking about challenging these “Blue Dogs” with liberal candidates in primaries, forgetting that (a) 31 of the 39 represent districts that John McCain carried, (b) one-third of them are in their first term, and (c) many of those in their first term took a seat once held by Republicans, according to the New York Times.  Democrats looking to oust them could see their numbers in Congress shrink to the narrow margins by which the health care bill passed on Saturday night.

In addition, a sizeable number of Southern Democrats with once conservative credentials have now voted moderate less often, possibly to avoid such primary challenges.  Such liberal trends could cost these candidates their seats in future general elections, just as they led the Democrats to a post-1860 disaster, where only two men (Cleveland and Wilson) won a presidential election until 1932.  Will history repeat itself 150 years later?