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Memo To Saxby: Remember Wyche Fowler

November 17, 2008 — Other than being Georgian Senators, Saxby Chambliss and Wyche Fowler seem to have little in common.  One is a liberal member of the Democratic Party, while the other is seen as a conservative Republican.  One is an Atlanta native, while the other seems more comfortable in rural settings.  One voted against the first Iraq War, while the other championed the second conflict in Iraq.

Yet unless Saxby Chambliss runs the race of his life over the next few months, he’s bound to follow in the footsteps of Senator Fowler.  Both are first term U.S. Senators who failed to win 50 percent +1 of the election in their reelection bid.  Each has now had to face a runoff.  And though both finished first on Election Day, it is possible both could experience defeat in the rematch.  So how can Saxby Chambliss avoid being a second round casualty, as Wyche Fowler once was?  Here are a few tips for the Georgia incumbent.

1) Explain your controversial votes.  There was Senator Fowler’s support of the tax increases and the confirmation of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court, which helped neither his standing with conservatives nor his record with liberals.  But clearly his vote against the Persian Gulf War raised plenty of eyebrows in this pro-military state.  Fowler turned to Greek philosophical arguments to defend his position, which may not have been the most effective means of handling the situation.  Given that a number of other Senate Democrats cast these votes and survived, there was a better way to handle the situation.

There’s no question about it; Saxby Chambliss must explain his support for the $700 billion package, which my research shows took him from a “Safe Republican” to “No Clear Favorite” designation overnight (going from a 15 point lead in a Survey USA poll in mid-September to a dead heat in an InsiderAdvantage poll on October 9).  As the package backers like Secretary of Treasury Hank Paulson and President-Elect Barack Obama try to change the deal around to suit their constituencies, Senator Chambliss must hold both accountable to the legislation and its aims that were originally agreed upon, or call for the bill to be torpedoed in light of questionable alterations made by legislators and bureaucrats.

2) Don’t underestimate your opponent.  Senator Fowler wasn’t worried about his opponent, Paul Coverdell.  After all, he had defeated the Republican in a prior election.  Of course, the Senate election was held in the state of Georgia, and not a small congressional district.  Senator Fowler evidently spent a lot of time on trips, not putting a full-court press in 1992.

Nobody seems to have given former state legislator Jim Martin much credit.  After losing a race for Lt. Governor to Casey Cagle, getting a late start in the U.S. Senate primary, and finishing second to DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones in the first round, folks (including me) have repeatedly written off Martin.  But the man has a history of pulling upsets.  Just ask Greg Hecht, Jones, and now Senator Chambliss, who never expected to be thrown into a runoff.  Martin is clearly capable of catching the incumbent napping.