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Dixie contests crucial to GOP’s civil war

November 18, 2009 — Two Southern races in 2010 could determine whether the staunchly conservative party base or the center-right establishment guides the GOP as it gears up for 2012 after next year’s state and congressional elections.

In next year’s Florida US Senate race, a primary battle is underway between Gov. Charlie Crist and his conservative challenger, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio. And in Texas incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, who appeals to his party’s social conservatives, is facing a strong challenge from the more moderate US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The two states, the nation’s second and fourth largest, could be crucial to the GOP in 2012, playing key roles both in the presidential primaries and in the General Election.

In Florida, Crist is the early favorite, but Rubio is gaining on him, cutting Crist’s lead from 29 points to 15 points in a two-month period. Barney Bishop, president and CEO of Associated Industries of Florida, says “Gov. Crist is in serious trouble and has the potential of losing to Marco Rubio.” Despite his dark-horse status, Rubio has begun to gain significant traction. He’s been endorsed by the Family Research Council and the influential conservative group Club for Growth announced last week that it would support Rubio over Crist, which should help the former House Speaker raise more funds. It would not be a surprise if Americans for Tax Reform, headed by conservative activist Grover Norquist, backs Rubio as well.

Rubio also has the endorsement of some key national figures, including Mike Huckabee and US Jim DeMint (R-SC). Can Sarah Palin be far behind? And while Rubio doesn’t have the open support of former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL), at least one of Bush’s sons is working for Rubio. “Marco Rubio is the ideological successor to Jeb Bush,” says Bishop. “There’s an ideological, philosophical alignment.” In addition, a number of Republican legislators are expected to get behind him soon.

In the end, however, Crist should win, says a long-time GOP consultant in the Sunshine State. He points out that in the 2006 Republican Primary, Crist defeated the well-known state Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, who ran to Crist’s right on social issues, by a whopping 64 percent to 33 percent. And he adds that Crist, a former tough-on-crime attorney general, “is much more conservative than his rhetoric suggests.” He acknowledges that “Rubio is trying to catch TEA Party fever, and the anger is so loud right now, he’s getting some legs.” But this source believes the better known, better financed Crist ($6,325,000 on hand to Rubio’s $903,000) will win.

(In any case, either Republican is likely to defeat the probable Democratic nominee, US Rep. Kendrick Meek, who is too liberal [80%, says the National Journal] for the state, especially for an African-American, at a time when the Obama Administration’s domestic agenda is creating such controversy.)

In Texas, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, who appeals to his party’s social conservatives and has the backing of ex-veep nominee Palin, is facing a strong challenge from the more moderate US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. The two have been swapping leads in the polls, but the latest survey shows Perry with an 11-point lead. “If Perry wins,” says a long-time observer of Lone Star politics, “it may be an indication of a national mood, [of] where the energy might end up being in some of these later races.”

 SPR’s source says the race can also be viewed as “a populist versus establishment” contest. He says that “the political current has shifted here,” noting that Perry recognized early on the importance of -- and got out in front of -- the TEA Party movement and its opposition to the Obama Administration’s domestic agenda, especially related to big spending and threats to states’ rights. In particular, Perry is using Hutchison’s Senate voting record against her. While her mostly conservative voting record -- 80 percent, says the National Journal -- is probably fine with the typical boardroom CEO, it may not sit well with some far-right activists and voters.

In addition, Hutchison continues to get poor marks for her campaign. Although she has distinguished her views from Perry’s in some respects, such as favoring Texas accepting any federal stimulus money that it is entitled to, supporting ear-marks for Texas projects, and favoring expansion of the state’s Children’s Health Initiative Program (CHIP), her overall effort is a “messageless campaign,” says SPR’s source. And she has not helped herself by shifting back and forth on when she will resign (she now says it will be after the March primary). “The dithering has not helped her,” especially with political figures down the line who are waiting to run for vacancies that would be created by her resignation.

Despite her current lag in the polls, Hutchison has some significant advantages. Being the establishment candidate has some pluses, such as having the endorsement of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who is scheduled to speak at a rally for Hutchison in Houston on Tuesday. Cheney is currently in good stead with the right wing for his strong anti-terrorist stance at a time when the Obama Justice Department has decided to try terrorists in US courts.

(Whether Perry is renominated or Hutchison wins the Republican Primary, the GOP is a heavy favorite to hold on to the governorship against not very strong Democratic opposition.)

Victories by Rubio and/or Perry will be seen as strengthening the GOP’s right wing nationally, while if Crist and Hutchison prevail, the more centrist establishment GOPers should benefit. In the end, however, most Republican candidates will probably do as Richard Nixon counseled a fellow Republican back in the 1960s: Run to the right in the primaries, run to the middle in the General Election.