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Tennessee: Lincoln Davis faces serious foe

November 25, 2009 — In Tennessee’s 4^th District (Lynchburg, etc.), an unexpectedly competitive race is developing between four-term US Rep. Lincoln Davis (D) and political newcomer Scott DesJarlais (R), a physician. The contest attracted attention when the 3^rd Quarter financial reports came in. Davis raised a not-very-serious $68,000, leaving him with $121,000 on hand. DesJarlais did better, bringing in $97,000 in the same period -- impressive for a beginner -- leaving him with $106,000 on hand.

In addition to a knack for fundraising, DesJarlais benefits from the opposition to President Obama’s domestic proposals that is sweeping conservative parts of the nation. Throughout the state, including the 4^th District, Republican gatherings of all sorts -- committee meetings, fundraising dinners and other events -- have attracted almost double the attendance of a year ago. In addition, TEA Parties protesting the Administration’s economic policies have been on-going.

DesJarlais’s website stresses economic issues -- opposing high taxes, big government, and “government run” health care, although it does note that “Scott is pro-life, supports traditional marriage, and will work to safeguard our 2^nd Amendment rights.”

The GOP hopes to tag Davis with the unpopular proposals backed by the President, and in some cases, passed by Congress, including that, as a Democrat, he voted for Nancy Pelosi for speaker of the House. He also voted for Obama’s stimulus package in January, a measure which has received renewed attacks in recent months.

The area’s sentiment was tested in part recently in a special election for a seat in the Tennessee House of Representatives. In a district that is partly in the 4^th congressional district, the GOP nominee won a seat -- by 15 points -- that had never until now been held by a Republican.

Sums up state GOP Chairman Chris DeVaney, “Anybody running against Lincoln Davis, I would put them as having a very good shot.” And Andy Sere, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee (NRCC), tells SPR, “We believe that Lincoln Davis is vulnerable in 2010, partly of his own doing, but also because of the strength of Dr. DesJarlais’s candidacy.” Indeed, the NRCC has included DesJarlais among seven Southern non-incumbents in its “On the Radar” program, for candidates who have met the committee’s initial organizational goals and will now receive extra attention from the committee.

Despite some notable advantages, however, DesJarlais remains the underdog. For starters, he has neither held nor sought public office before, which means that until now he has had no experience campaigning and is not widely known in the district.

Moreover, Davis has some impressive advantages. He may not have brought in a lot of cash so far, perhaps assuming -- erroneously -- that he wouldn’t need it, but he is a member of the House Appropriations Committee and is unlikely to have difficulty amassing a war chest, once he puts his mind to it. Don’t be surprised, says one source, if he raises in excess of $1 million.

Another significant Davis asset is his voting record, which the National Journal rates 52% liberal, 48% conservative, about as conservative as any Democrat gets. Tennessee Democratic Chairman Chip Forrester points out that Davis’s voting record “very much mirrors the populist/conservative views of the district.” Indeed, Davis is known for once saying, “No opponent is ever going to be able to out-gun me, out-preach me, or out-pray me.” This helps insulate him from a certain amount of the anti-Obama criticism that appears as strong here as anywhere.

Forrester also notes that “Lincoln Davis has consistently won the district now very handsomely” in the past several elections. Last year, Davis received 59% of the vote to Republican long-shot Monty Lankford’s 38%, a more impressive feat considering that at the same time, John McCain was beating Barack Obama by 64% to 35% in the 4^th district. In 2006, Davis won with 66% of the vote.

A long-time journalist says “My hunch is that there’s less of a chance of an upset [in the 4^th District]” than in several other Democratic districts, such as the 6^th, held by 13-term Bart Gordon, and the 8^th, held by 11-term John Tanner. “It would have to be quite a Republican tidal wave to sweep Davis out.”