Monday Morning Report: InsiderAdvantage/Times-Union Poll in FL—Romney 52%-Obama 47%; Charter Schools Effort Fights for Life in Ga
November 5, 2012 —
An InsiderAdvantage/Florida Times-Union poll conducted last evening in Florida shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 52%-47% with 1% undecided. A poll conducted by Mason-Dixon and several other Florida newspapers released Sunday showed Romney at 51% and Obama at 46% in Florida.
National pundits, both Democratic and some with strong GOP experience, seemed to throw in the towel on a Mitt Romney victory Tuesday night. Many experts including Matthew Dowd (former Bush strategist) predicted an Obama win of over 300 electoral votes in making Sunday talk show predictions. Odds guru and pundit Nate Silver gave Obama over an 80% chance of winning as of Sunday, but, even Silver hedged by noting that if the swing state polls are “biased” (not in a purposeful way, but more in a general error in weighting) then Romney could win the race.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery notes that Romney’s momentum “stopped in its tracks” during Hurricane-turned Super Storm Sandy’s attack but believes “there has been a consistent pattern of many pollsters overweighting Democratic votes in surveys, thus decreasing the impact of both Republicans and independent voters who have moved in Romney’s direction.” Towery adds that he believes “the strength of the turnout of the youngest of voters has been set too high” in many surveys as well.
Towery continues: “It is possible that despite this slight potential error in the polls, Obama regained so much ground last week that he will slip by in Ohio and other critically necessary swing states. If so, yes it is an Obama 300 electoral vote plus win…However, if the Mason-Dixon/InsiderAdvantage numbers in Florida, which show independent voters flocking to Romney are correct, then that same model would suggest a potential win for Romney in other states that the pundits have already placed into the Obama column.”
Meanwhile, in Georgia, the latest InsiderAdvantage/Fox5 poll showing Romney leading 54%-to-42% for Obama could, Towery says, “become a bigger blowout for Romney if one believes the Mason-Dixon/InsiderAdvantage numbers in Florida…A five point lead in Florida would suggest a really bad night for Obama in Georgia, where victory for Romney has already been ceded. If that develops then Republicans sweep virtually everything they contest in the state” he adds.
As to the controversial charter school amendment, Towery states “We have not publicly polled this…however, the internals of other polls I have seen suggest that this thing might be getting tighter …independents are breaking against it… African-American voters, who had basically held about the same level of support as whites are being told to vote ‘no’ and some of the ads and mailers for the effort have confused Republicans, particularly seniors, by appearing to be designed to appeal more to Democrat and minority voters. Unfortunately, race plays a bigger role than anyone wants it to, and between anti-charter comments from Joe Lowery (who raised his profile in an unrelated controversy), tough editorials, and the use by the pro-charter forces of minority images in vastly white Republican areas, the electorate is confused and perhaps more polarized than expected.”
Towery says he still expects the amendment adding “the fact that Governor Deal lent his active support is critical to the success of this effort.” But he notes “Just a week or so more of all of this combination of the press, the images, and it could go the other way. But there are only a few days left, enough time to win. Republicans tend to know that charter schools are a GOP issue, so they have been in support, but independents, who are voting GOP this year, still do not know what a charter school is and have consistently been against the effort.”
This afternoon…InsiderAdvantage makes final projections in Georgia…and nationwide.