Home / News /

Texas: Competitive Congressional Primaries Coming Up

January 18, 2008 — The filing deadline in Texas has passed and a number of hotly contested congressional primaries are shaping up across the state, mostly on the Republican side. In the US Senate race, incumbent John Cornyn (R) has only token primary opposition and on the Democratic side, state Rep. Rick Noriega, the party establishment favorite, has three opponents, none with significant political heft. But in the US House primaries on March 4, there will be at least five Republican contests and three Democratic ones.

Texas 3 (Plano, etc.)                                                                                                      

Now in his 16^th year in Congress, US Rep. Sam Johnson (R), 77, has drawn several primary foes, retired airline pilot Harry Pierce and controller, author Wayne Avellanet, neither of whom has previously sought elective office. Two Democrats are also running for their party’s nomination, attorney Tom Daley and Ron Minkow, who is retired. Daley, so far, has the more visible Democratic campaign. Despite his opposition, Johnson, a decorated Viet Nam veteran, “is kind of an institution in Plano,” says one observer of Lone Star politics. Johnson won by 63% to 35% in 2006 and is a strong favorite again this year. Primary (R): Safe Johnson. General Election: Safe Republican.                                                           

Texas 4 (Rockwall, etc.)                                                                                       

Although 13-term US Rep. Ralph Hall (R), 84, was re-elected in 2006 with 65% of the vote, he has drawn four primary opponents: Former mayor of Frisco Kathy Seei; NASCAR team owner Gene Christensen; businessman Kevin George, a self-described “born-again Bible believer;” and graduate student and former congressional staffer Joshua Kowert. Two Democrats also filed: Former prosecutor Valinda Hathcox, who lost (41%) a statewide bid for land commissioner in 2006; and history professor Glenn Melancon, who got 33% in his 2006 race against Hall. Hall’s office tells SPR that all the opposition reminds the congressman of the folks that used to file against elderly House Speaker Sam Rayburn (D), who once held this seat: They were gambling on his not being around much longer.  Primary (R): Likely Hall; General Election: Safe Republican.

Texas 10 (Austin, Houston suburbs, etc.)                                                                     

US Rep. Mike McCaul (R) finished with an unimpressive 55% in 2006, but he was still 14 points ahead of the Democratic nominee, who garnered 41%, while a Libertarian took the remaining 4%. Nevertheless, the Democrats think they smell blood in the water and are making a significant effort here. First, however, they have to get past a contested primary between Dan Grant, a consultant with an impressive foreign affairs resume, and Texas Justice television judge Larry Joe Doherty. Grant benefits from residing in Austin, where most of the Democratic voters live, and from his recent endorsement by Ted Ankrum, the Democrats’ 2006 nominee. Doherty gets major points from his TV exposure. In the end, however, the district is a Republican one (Bush 62% in 2004) and McCaul should be re-elected. Primary (D): Toss-up. General Election: Likely Republican.

Texas 14 (Galveston, etc.)                                                                               

US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) has attracted a loyal following of libertarian activists and donors across the nation for his presidential campaign. Less noticed, however, is that under Texas law -- thanks to Lyndon Johnson -- Paul can run for both president and congress simultaneously and could face a contest getting re-nominated in his district. Chris Peden, mayor pro tem of Friendswood has filed to oppose Paul. Peden said bluntly, “I think Islamo-Fascists terrorists were responsible for the 9/11 attacks,” a slam at Paul’s criticism of the Bush foreign policy. Peden is best known as a leader in an effort to get English declared the official U.S. language, a popular cause here. Paul, however, has a loyal following, especially in the rural areas in his district: “His people would walk on a bed of nails for him,” says one observer. Primary: Likely Paul; General Election: Safe Republican.

Texas 22 (Sugar Land, etc.) 
                                                                               
Freshman Nick Lampson (D) won his seat in 2006 by a tepid 52% against a write-in candidate in Texas’ GOP-leaning 22nd District (Sugar Land) once held by ex-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R). During Lampson’s first year, he underwent heart surgery; then considered but declined -- a race against the GOP’s US Sen. John Cornyn. Lampson has since jumped full-throttle into his campaign for re-election to the House. Like moderate Texas Democrats of yore, Lampson is emphasizing constituent service and forging a centrist political image. He joined the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative and moderate Democrats. He’s also raising lots of money.

Given the district’s GOP-leaning past, ten Republicans are vying for the nomination to oppose him. They will face off in the March 4 primary. According to one Texas journalist, the Republican race in the 22^nd “is so wide open that most anything could happen.” The first five to enter the race, and probably the group from which the eventual GOP nominee will emerge, are:

Physician and former Houston Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbes, who served two months of ex-US Rep. Tom DeLay’s (R) last term, has significant name ID, but got some bad ink when some of DeLay’s former staff left in a huff over her management style. Given the large field and her substantial war chest, she could easily make the runoff.

Pete Olson, a former top aide to US Sen. John Cornyn (R) and ex-US Sen. Phil Gramm (R), will have to make himself known, but he’s got a pot full of money and is a skilled politico. He will benefit from the high-level backing of his former bosses.

Dean Hrbacek, former Sugar Land mayor, “is generally well-regarded,” says Harvey Kronberg, editor of Texas’s Quorum Report. Some 45% of the district’s voters are in the Sugar Land area.

State Rep. Robert Talton, popular with social conservatives, is from Pasadena in the Harris County (Houston, etc.) part of the district, which contains nearly half the voters. Talton, fairly well-known district wide, made friends and enemies by his strong opposition to state House Speaker Tom Craddick.

Pasadena Mayor John Manlove (R) resigned as his city’s CEO to enter the race. His base of support is likely to come in Pasadena, a suburb of Houston and one of the two centers of population in the district.

Five other Republicans filed later. Jim Squier resigned as a judge to make the race. His latest press release notes that he raised $150,000 in the first two weeks of his campaign. Cynthia Dunbar, a member of the Texas School Board elected in 2006, is a prominent conservative and “small l” libertarian activist. Kevyn Bazzy, an Army intelligence officer, is basing his campaign on his experience in counter-terrorism. Brian Klock, a financial analyst and commander in the Navy Reserve, has promised to eat only MREs (military “meals ready to eat”) until the primary. And information technology professional Ryan Rowley notes that he served in the Persian Gulf War.

Given the likelihood that few districts currently held by Democrats will be vulnerable to Republican takeover this year, the GOP is giving an especially high priority to this district. However, in the post-2002 redistricting, DeLay -- in a fit of party loyalty taking precedence over personal security -- gave away about 10% of the Republicans in his district to help more hard-pressed GOPers in neighboring districts. That decision could help Lampson hold the seat. Primary (R): Too soon to say. General Election: Toss-up.

Texas 23 (San Antonio, etc.)                                                                       

Freshman and former US Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) won a Dec. 12 special election runoff in late 2006, ousting incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) by 54% to 46%. Although the boundaries was redrawn in a way that favored Democrats, President Bush still carried the current district territory with 57% in 2004, so the GOP has a major interest in challenging Rodriguez. Francisco “Quico” Canseco, a lawyer, banker and Republican activist who ran for the 28th District seat in 2004 (second in a four-way primary with 21%) announced early and gained the support of most of the party establishment, who believe running an Hispanic candidate makes good political sense here. However, Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson, who announced later, has held office for a decade in the district’s GOP population center, which makes him a powerful contender in the primary. The upshot is that the Republicans may not nominate the candidate who would run the stronger race in November. Thus freshman Rodriquez “is a happy camper,” says one Lone Star analyst.