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Brown win upends congressional agenda

January 20, 2010 —

The stunning 52 percent-47 percent victory of Republican Scott Brown in yesterday’s US Senate election in Massachusetts has major implications for the Democratic domestic agenda in Congress. For starters, the election in the nation’s most liberal bailiwick underscores public hostility to health care reform and many of the other high-profile proposals backed by the Obama Administration. With the loss of their 60-vote, filibuster-proof margin in the Senate, Democrats are being forced to consider ways to do an end-run around the normal procedures to get favorable action on health care reform, which President Obama hopes will be the crown jewel of his administration.  

Several options were already being weighed before the Massachusetts results were known, including a speeded-up vote in both chambers before Brown takes his seat in the Senate; passage of the Senate version by the House, which liberal House Democrats oppose; and a seldom-used procedure called reconciliation, whereby the House would pass the Senate bill with the proviso that differences in the two versions would be reconciled before it is sent to the President for his signature. This procedure would require only a majority vote in the Senate. Another possibility would be to peel off at least one Republican vote in the Senate, possibly Olympia Snowe (R-ME), to support the health care bill. 

Even before the Massachusetts election, the president had been working with congressional leaders to help iron out some of the key differences between the two chambers. Indeed, the Washington Post reported that at one point the president and congressional leaders were trying to get the bill passed before Tuesday’s special election in Massachusetts.  

In any case, nearly all of these scenarios depend on not losing a single Democratic vote in the Senate. So far, Southern Democrats, as well as other moderates, have argued that the concessions they received have made the measure more palatable and all seven of them voted for the health care bill, despite strong opposition to the proposal from their constituents. The best guess is that they will continue to support the bill, but perhaps not other politically difficult measures, which Brown’s victory will also affect. 

After health care, other hot potatoes likely to come before Congress this year are economic reform and stimulus proposals, climate change measures, labor law revisions, immigration reform and some social issues. While none have the priority of health care, Democrats in Congress would like to take action on many of them as early as possible -- in the spring at the latest -- in hopes that controversial measures would be “old news” by Election Day on Nov. 2. 

A bill designed to create jobs is near the top of the Democrats’ agenda. “Stimulus” bills have gone out of fashion -- voters have seen huge expenditures coupled with rising unemployment and don’t trust the concept. But a “jobs” bill might make it through Congress, especially if voters believe the federal spending will be tailored to job creation, not pet projects of powerful members of Congress. The House has already passed, by a slim 217 to 212, a $154 billion bill, scaled way down from the last $780 billion stimulus package. This measure focuses on infrastructure, including Amtrak, mass transit and highway construction. With the new Democratic margin of 59-41 in the Senate, the jobs bill is likely to be amended significantly, emphasizing especially incentives to small businesses, to avoid a Republican filibuster. The GOP has already attacked the House bill as essentially “stimulus light.” If economists continue to forecast a high jobless rate until 2011, however, the Democratic majority -- with some GOP support -- may prevail on the theory that doing nothing would be worse than imperfect legislation. 

Financial reform is likely to be one of the easier economic measures to get through the Congress. The bill that would, among other things, create a Consumer Credit Protection Agency and regulate some executive compensation, has already passed the House. In the Senate, the Banking Committee chairman, US Sen. Chris Dodd (D), who has already announced he will not run again, deems the bill “legacy making,” says Politico, and is anxious to get a bill passed. He is expected to work with the ranking Republican on his committee, US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), the GOP’s expert on banking issues who will now have a stronger hand to play since Democrats have lost their 60-vote majority. Moreover, with Dodd retiring at the end of this year, Republican Senators will not be determined to prevent him from getting a legislative feather in his cap, which could have helped him retain his seat. The betting is that Dodd’s committee will report out a bill in February. 

 “Cap-and-trade,” a bill designed to curb carbon emissions, was already on its last legs before the GOP’s win in Massachusetts. The measure is receiving strong opposition from business groups, including the influential US Chamber of Commerce. The bill may not even be taken up this year or at least until after the November election. In the Senate, three Southern Democrats who voted for the health care bill -- Mary Landrieu (LA), Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Jim Webb (VA) -- have been highly critical of cap-and-trade. There is a possibility, however, that a compromise will be considered that drops the carbon tax, adds conservation incentives and encourages renewable fuels, offshore drilling and nuclear power. Three senators, South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham (R) along with John Kerry (D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (Ind-CT), are working on such a measure in hopes that it could draw votes from both sides of the aisle. 

Labor has pushed hard to pass a bill making it easier to unionize company employees. Dubbed “The Employee Free Choice Act” by its supporters, the cornerstone of the original proposal would replace a secret-ballot election with a card-check system that would presumably give union organizers an advantage. Business has been vehement in its opposition to the card-check proposal and it is doubtful it could escape a successful filibuster in the Senate, especially given its post-Massachusetts-election line-up. However, a compromise that would give organized labor something for its heavy lifting on the Democrats’ behalf in 2008 may be in the works and labor leaders hope to get something passed by the end of March, reports Politico. Labor has already shown its clout in the White House negotiations with congressional leaders over health care, which resulted in an exemption for union members until 2018 from the tax on high-end private plans.  

Immigration reform is another measure that is sure to provoke controversy and is unlikely to pass before the November elections. Top White House aides, in a late December conference call with Latino leaders, assured them of President Obama’s support for meaningful reform this year, including providing a “path to citizenship” for the more than 12 million illegal immigrants in the United States. Long-time Hispanic leader and public official Henry Cisneros was quoted in the press that any such measure would have to be passed by spring. Nevertheless, it remains a hot-button issue that polarizes voters, and often divides the Democratic base. It remains to be seen whether a compromise bill, similar to the one backed by the Bush White House that didn’t make it through the Senate, can do any better this year.  

Social issues that have proven highly controversial in the past, such as various gay-rights measures, could also receive congressional attention. Early this year, the House could pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA), which would ban job bias against gay people, with the Senate following suit later in the spring. Gay political groups, which backed Obama and other Democrats heavily in 2008, are pushing hard for action on ENDA as well as an end to “Don’t-ask-don’t-tell,” which sanctions discrimination against gays in the military. ENDA is given the better chance; however, whether politically sensitive Democrats will now want to risk a backlash over either measure is as yet unclear.

In sum, Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts gave the Republicans both a shot in the arm and a much-need extra vote in the US Senate. It is likely to cause a significant watering down of a number of Democrat-backed measures before Congress and will probably result in delay or defeat for others. Stay tuned.