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Will The GOP Get Lucky Against “Landslide Landrieu” in Louisiana?

December 18, 2007 — When the Republicans say they’re going to finally defeat Louisiana Democrat incumbent Mary Landrieu, keep in mind their poor track record against entrenched Senate Democrats over the last decade.   

In fact, since 1996, three times as many Republican Senators have lost their seats as Democrats.  Republicans have only bounced five Democrats since that election.  That means the GOP lost more incumbents in 2006 than the Democrats did between 1996 and 2006!  The only reason the Republicans have held the US Senate for all but two years between 1994 and 2007 is their ability to win open seats. 

Yet if any Democrat can be pushed out of the US Senate, it’s Mary “Landslide” Landrieu.  In 1996, she sought to hold the seat of retiring Democrat Senator J. Bennett Johnston Jr.  That year, she upended Woody Jenkins by a 50.1%-49.9% margin.  The race was so close and allegations of fraud were so rampant that the Republican-led US Senate chose to investigate.  Unfortunately for the GOP, all they seemed to uncover was embarrassing revelations about the strong-arm tactics of the Jenkins campaign. 

Republicans had their chance six years later when elections commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell mounted a strong bid against Landrieu in a good year for the GOP.  But Landrieu won another squeaker, 51.7%-48.3%, defying even the liberals who wrote off her chances that year.  So if anything, Landrieu’s an electoral survivor.

Looking back over the last ten Senate Democrats to lose since 1992, we find that 70% lost in the South (only 60% if you don’t count Missouri in the South).  These include Sanford (NC), Fowler (GA), Krueger (TX), Sasser (TN), Robb (VA), Cleland (GA) and Carnahan (MO).  Not all were first termers either.  Even though Carnahan (2002), Krueger (1993) and Wofford (1994) were appointees who had not served a full term, and Sanford (1992), Fowler (1992), Moseley Braun (1998) and Cleland (2002) were one-termers, there were three veterans who were ousted: Sasser (three terms, 1994), Robb (two terms, 2000) and Daschle (four terms, 2004). 

Of those elected to multiple terms, two (Sasser, Daschle) had comfortable reelection margins, where the incumbent won their prior race with 60% or more of the popular vote.  Only Robb had any difficulty (besting Oliver North and J. Marshall Coleman 46%-43%-11%), for obvious reasons, if anyone saw the film “The Perfect Candidate.”  Therefore, two of the three incumbents lost after facing token opposition in their prior reelection bid, and were clearly caught off-guard. 

At first, it looked as though Landrieu might cruise to a comfortable reelection bid.  Polls earlier this year showed her with a 53%-38% lead over Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne.  The early result seemed to indicate that rumors of her base shattered by Hurricane Katrina seemed to be false.  State Treasurer John N. Kennedy did bolt the Democrats for the Republicans for the opportunity to challenge Landrieu.  But he lagged in the money race, as a result of debts from his reelection campaign.  Meanwhile, the incumbent amassed a war chest of $3.3 million, expecting a close race based upon her prior history of tough elections.  Further complicating the issue for Kennedy was the memory of his first Senate race in 2004, where he only took 15%, finishing a distant third behind Republican Congressman David Vitter (the winner) and Democrat Congressman Chris John. 

Yet there’s something about this former “Kennedy Democrat” that may enable him to overcome his current and past problems.  A survey conducted by Roll Call/SurveyUSA put him only four points behind Landrieu (46%-42%).  I’d like to see the InsiderAdvantage numbers, of course, but this is a closer race than was thought to exist earlier this year. 

Some of that change may be the Democrats were earlier basking in the post-2006 election glow; now that Reid is in charge, perceptions of the Democrats might change.  It could be Mary’s brother’s nasty primary battle with Ray Nagin in New Orleans for the mayor’s spot that lands the Senator in trouble with African-Americans.  Or perhaps the ex-Democrat Kennedy resonates well with Conservative Democrats in a way that Republicans wouldn’t.  But regardless, Louisiana’s Landrieu has a fight on her hands to avoid being the sixth Senate Democrat to be shown the door since 1996.