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Jim Martin’s “Hail Mary”: Secrets of the Georgia Senate Runoff

December 1, 2008 — As voters go to the polls Tuesday in Georgia’s U.S. Senate runoff, there is cautious optimism in the camp of incumbent Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss, who has led in every poll of the runoff contest, including our Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey conducted just over a week ago.

Early voting for the runoff appears less robust and more Republican than for the Nov. 4 election, when it heavily favored Barack Obama and Jim Martin, Chambliss’ Democratic challenger. In general, Republicans tend to return to the polls for runoff contests at a greater rate than Democrats.

So with the polls and the early turnout apparently all in Chambliss’ favor, why does Martin even have a chance at pulling off an upset? The answer is … he barely has one, but if so it can be found in a couple of “Hail Mary” plays.

To explain, let’s start with the now-notorious “early voting” in Georgia. In the general election, African-Americans accounted for well over 30 percent of the votes cast. For a Democrat to have a chance at winning in Georgia, blacks (who comprise around 30 percent of registered voters) must vote at or above their registered level as compared to white voters.

This time, the African American early vote accounts for only around 23 percent of votes cast. That would seem bad news for Martin. But a careful analysis of the total early votes in the runoff - as compared to how the various demographic groups say they intend to vote when surveyed - suggests that while the early vote totals may favor Chambliss, the margin may not be as great as some pundits suggest.

After comparing early runoff vote percentages by race and gender to polling data, InsiderAdvantage concluded that of some 340,000 plus votes cast, Chambliss might be leading Martin by as few as 9,000 or so votes or as many as 15,000 or so. So, Chambliss likely enters election day with something like a three-to-six percent advantage over Martin. That’s a substantial cushion, but not the 10-plus percent lead some believe is out there.

Now let’s consider both sides’ “GOTV” (Get Out The Vote) effort. Both have relied heavily on volunteers as well as professional “robo-calls” (automated calls where well-known political leaders implore the faithful to return to the polls and vote for their candidate once again.) Again, as to overall manpower and sheer intensity of effort, Chambliss’ team would seem to have the advantage.

So where does Jim Martin’s “Hail Mary” effort come into play? And who tosses his “wing and a prayer” pass, since Martin himself is a less-than charismatic figure?

The answer: the seemingly politically invisible president-elect Barack Obama.

Obama has steadfastly avoided appearing in Georgia for the Senate runoff, unlike his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, who as president-elect in 1992 campaigned in a losing effort for then-incumbent Wyche Fowler. Some believe controversial comments by Clinton in the early days following his election contributed to Fowler’s defeat.

But Obama has enjoyed a smooth transition and has a current “honeymoon” approval rating in Georgia of nearly 60%. And he has not been as hands-off in Georgia as one might guess.

Over the past few days and up until Monday night, well over 1 million “robo-calls” will have been placed in Georgia with the voice of Barack Obama asking voters to got to the polls one more time and vote for Martin. These calls primarily are going to African-American households and households that have been identified as having strongly leaning Democratic voters. Meanwhile, black radio stations—often ignored by the mainstream media, but a powerful force politically—have been airing radio spots cut by Obama, also promoting Martin’s campaign.

In the Nov. 4 general election, the Democratic Party’s push to bring African-American voters out to vote early was so strong that it created, some believe, an impression among many black voters who had missed the early voting phase that lines would be so long they would be unable to have time to vote on election day. How many of these voters stayed at home no one knows.

Now the question is, with no threats of long lines and a “personal phone call” from the president-elect, how many African American voters - who in our latest survey favored Martin by over 90% - will feel compelled to go to the polls on Tuesday?

If the Martin campaign is to have even a fighting chance, that number must push the overall percentage of black voter participation in the election to at least 30 percent of the overall total vote. That’s a tall order—and that alone would not put Martin ahead of Chambliss.

For Martin to win, he must hope that female voters overall continue to support his candidacy more heavily than that of Chambliss. More importantly, he must hope that men have already voted and that on election day the gender split (as far as overall participation) is more like 55 percent female to 45 percent male.

If the runoff’s early voting pattern of near-parity between men and women were to hold true on election day, then Martin is as cooked as that Thanksgiving turkey now resting in your garbage can.

It would certainly be an upset if Chambliss were to lose the runoff in Georgia. The GOP has poured tremendous resources into the state. And regardless of the alleged continuation of the “Obama field offices” converted to support Martin, one must recall that their effort did not result in a win in Georgia.

Quite frankly, Martin’s “Hail Mary” victory can only come from a strong female vote (and independent women in Georgia have seen the largest movement towards Obama since Nov. 4), coupled with the hope that a phone call from “the man,” himself, will focus the African American community on participating in a runoff day election—something that has not been the case in recent history.

And, for good measure, Martin must hope that thousands of improperly designed absentee ballot request forms sent out by the GOP in Georgia were not cured in time—perhaps supplying an Al Franken in reverse situation (Franken lost an effort to have a slew of absentee ballots counted in his recount effort in Minnesota. )

For Jim Martin, it will take a true “Hail Mary” play (or set of plays) to have a chance at defeating Chambliss. Now you know what that playbook must look like and how it must be executed. Still, long odds.