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Does party switching actually pay off?

December 24, 2009 —

Within hours of Alabama Congressman Parker Griffith’s decision to switch parties, there were 50,000 sites on Google with the words “Parker Griffith” and “party switching.”  Their numbers are sure to increase dramatically in the coming days.

But will it be a good move for Griffith?  Few, if any, of these articles really can say.  That’s because we really don’t know as much about party switching as we think we do.

The Huffington Post attempts to convince us that this practice is nothing new.  But that doesn’t tell us how likely Griffith is to win reelection, or have much of a political future.  Do voters trust a person who changed political parties?  Does the jilted party try harder to defeat the “traitor?”  Is the new party so accepting of a former foe?

Charles Mahtesian of the National Journal talks about motivations behind party switching, but it’s a tough thing to analyze.  Everyone claims they are doing so for the good of their district, even if electoral politics or committee calculations are the real rationale for such a move.  

 Sean Trende’s title tells us plenty in his realclearpolitics article “Party Switchers Have Short Lifespans.”  But he doesn’t provide us any rigorous analysis.  He merely lists some success stories and failures, leaving us wondering how likely these wins and losses are.

So to analyze whether this was a good move for Congressman Griffith, I looked at all cases of members of the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate (noted with an asterisk) who switched parties while in office, as well as the result of their party switch, since 1980.  I also note who benefited from the switch, and who did not.  I define success as having won at least three subsequent terms in the House of Representatives (six years) or at least one reelection to the U.S. Senate (six years) as “Good.”  Defeat in a subsequent election, or primary for higher office can be considered “Bad.”  Those cases coded “Unclear” either involve a retirement before reelection or have yet to be resolved.

OUTCOME     YEAR  CONGRESS MEMBER          STATE  RESULT

Good               1981    Bob Stump                               AZ       Wins 10 terms

Bad                  1981    Eugene Atkinson                     PA       Loses in 1982 by 21 points

Good               1983    Phil Gramm                              TX       Wins Special Election,

Wins 3 US Senate terms

Bad                  1989    Bill Grant                                  FL        Loses in 1990 by 14 points

Bad                  1989    Tommy F. Robinson            AR       Loses 1990 GOP Governor

Primary

Good               1994    Richard Shelby*                    AL       Wins 2 US Senate Terms

Bad                  1995    Jimmy Hayes                            LA       Loses GOP Senate Primary

Bad                  1995    Greg Laughlin                           TX       Loses GOP Primary in 1996

Good               1995    Ben Nighthorse Campbell*       CO      Wins 1 term reelection

Good               1995    Billy Tauzin                               LA       Wins 4 More Terms

Good               1995    Nathan Deal                             GA       Wins 7 More Terms

Unclear            1995    Mike Parker                            MS      Wins 1 More Term,

                                                                                                Loses 1999 Gov Race

Bad                  1999    Michael Forbes                        NY      Loses 2000 Dem Primary

Bad                  1999    Robert Smith*                          NH      Loses 2002 GOP

                                                                                                Senate Primary

Unclear            2001    James Jeffords*                      VT       Retires in 2006

Good               2002    Virgil Goode                             VA       Wins 3 More Terms,

                                                                                                Loses in 2008

Good               2004    Rodney Alexander                  LA       Wins 3 More Terms

Unclear            2009    Arlen Specter*                        PA       ?

Unclear            2009    Parker Griffith                          AL       ?

By my count, that means the Good-Bad-Unclear outcome ratio is 8-7-4, indicating mixed support for party switching.  Among Southerners, that’s a 6-4-2 split.  Since 1998, the record is similarly mixed (2-2-3).  For the House of Representatives, the record is 6-6-2.  At this point, a coin flip with one of those Helen Keller quarters from Alabama isn’t such a bad move for Griffith.

Perhaps the best solution was the one adopted by former Democratic US Rep. Phil Gramm.  He resigned his House seat, ran in the special election for his own seat as a Republican, and won that open seat.  A year later, he prevailed over Lloyd Doggett in the race to succeed John Tower in the U.S. Senate, carving himself a successful career in the upper branch of our nation’s legislature. 

Perhaps Parker Griffith could have benefited from such a move, which insulated Gramm from charges of opportunism.  But now we’ll never know.  In addition, as the record suggests, he’s not even guaranteed to win the GOP nomination in 2010 for his own seat, given the presence of two Republican challengers (Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip) and perhaps the presence of others, given Griffith’s recent move.  Just ask ex-Congressmen Greg Laughlin and Michael Forbes.