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The road from Myrtle Beach and the brawl ahead

January 22, 2008 — Myrtle Beach, S.C. -- If Martin Luther King Jr. were alive today, he might have observed, with a touch of irony, that the best evidence that his dream was making progress on his holiday came at that point in Monday evening when Hillary Clinton and John Edwards began to tag-team Barack Obama.

In a previous debate, it was Edwards taking sides against Clinton. By switching sides Monday night, Edwards demonstrated that in South Carolina, at least, it's Obama who is the frontrunner and thus the most; desirable target. King might have noted that in this case, the reticence of white politicians to battle African-American politicians as equals, not treat them as tokens, had pretty much evaporated.

To borrow his language, what mattered Tuesday night was not the color of a candidate's skin, but the size of his lead.

The rumble which erupted in the opening minutes of Monday night's CNN-Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate actually began hours before with conference calls to reporters from the Clinton and Obama campaigns about the national ad buy which Clinton's camp charged was a violation of the agreement to stay out of Florida.

The fireworks were over by the time the contestants sat down for the second half of the forum, but you can expect the firecrackers to start popping again soon.

This debate had very little to do with next Saturday's Democratic primary in South Carolina, and everything to do with the road beyond it. As the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reported Monday night, Clinton will attend two fundraisers in Florida Sunday. That's not a violation of the sanctions which her camp claimed Obama violated, by the way – fundrasing events are specifically excluded. But this, and the fact that Clinton hasn't got anymore South Carolina events planned for the rest of the week, indicates an awareness that Obama has the advantage here.

Instead, this debate was about laying the groundwork for the next, furious stage of this race. CNN reported Tuesday that this was the most-watched primary debate in the history of cable television. So it was a large nationwide audience the candidates were speaking to, and the subjects they hit on are likely to be revisited.

You can expect, for instance, to hear more about Tony Rezco, the alleged Chicago slumlord brought up by Clinton Monday night. Asked in the post-debate spin room about Obama's claim that he only did about five hours legal work for a church group involved in a project with Rezco, Clinton strategist Mark Penn had a lot more to say on the subject.

“You're aware, of course, that this was his chief bundler in the 2003 election, you're aware of course that he gave back $40,000 of contributions Saturday night, you're aware that the Chicago Sun-Times points out that donations were give to his campaign through an illegal kickback scheme,  Rezco organized along with nominee donations., and you're aware of course that it was not five of work with a church social group, but that he was so friendly that he coordinated the purchase of his first home and property with Tony Rezco?” Penn replied.

No doubt Obama's campaign will have plenty to say about Clinton's service on the board of Walmart, also. But it's worth noting that Clinton brought up Rezco after Obama brought up Walmart. When it takes a shot, Obama's campaign needs to be aware it is up against the wife of one of the great counterpunchers in modern political history.

All this talk about Clinton and Obama somewhat obscures the fact that focus groups and viewers polled after the debate named Edwards the winner of the debate. He did so, ironically, by being the peacemaker.

“I think his presence in the race is making those other candidates in the race focus on those larger issues of poverty and equality. I think this could easily just become a brawl if John Edwards is not in the campaign,” Rep. Mell Watt of North Carolina, an Edwards supporter, said.

That's probably a fair appraisal. Unfortunately for Edwards, winning a debate is often not a good harbinger of political success. Fred Thompson, who dropped out of the Republican nomination race Tuesday afternoon, was judged by many to have won the last couple of GOP debates.

And with or without Edwards in the race, the brawl in the Democratic nomination race will be hard to avoid.