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Louisiana Elects Two Congressmen Saturday

December 4, 2008 — This Saturday, December 6, voters in Louisiana’s 2^nd and 4^th congressional districts go back to the polls to choose their US Representative. The elections are being held in December because last summer, Hurricane Gustav forced state officials to postpone party primaries, which affected the dates for runoffs and General Elections as well. Both races are being hotly contested, with one seat likely to stay Democratic and the other -- a Republican seat -- too close to call.

2^nd District (New Orleans, etc.)

The focus in Louisiana’s 2^nd District is on the political fortunes of nine-term incumbent William Jefferson (D) who will stand trial next year on federal bribery charges. Dubbed “Dollar Bill” by his critics because FBI agents found $90,000 in cash in his home freezer, Jefferson has managed to stay in office since the FBI raid in 2005, in part because many Bayou State voters have a tradition that tolerates “indicted” (though they do draw the line at “convicted.”) In addition, as a formerly influential African-American member of congress, he made many friends and allies among the district’s political establishment. Moreover, voters in this 64% black district tend to support him when, as has as often been the case, he faces a non-black opponent. In the Democratic runoff on Nov. 4, Jefferson defeated former television anchor Helena Moreno, a white Hispanic, by 57% to 43%. Jefferson has not raised much money for the General Election -- he had $86,000 on hand as of November 25. However, most of New Orleans’ African-American political organizations are in Jefferson’s corner.

Jefferson is facing Republican attorney Anh “Joseph” Cao (pronounced “Gow”), who emigrated from Vietnam when he was eight years old. In addition to his law degree, Cao has degrees in philosophy and physics. He practices immigration law and has been active in civic affairs, especially in the Asian community. Although he has not raised much money -- he had $67,000 on hand as of November 24 -- national Republican groups have poured money into the race in the last several weeks, mainly for television. Moreover, local GOPers are campaigning door-to-door on Cao’s behalf. He has also been endorsed by a number of officials in the suburban parts of the district.

While observers find it difficult to believe Jefferson could lose to an Asian Republican, Dr. Silas Lee, an African-American consultant who has written about politics and economics in New Orleans’ black community, says, “It’s all about turnout.” He projects a very low vote, “probably 10%,” and points out that whites and Republicans tend to have a higher turnout rate than blacks and Democrats. Pollster and political insider Bernie Pinsonat echoes that view, noting that GOP hopes are pinned on the possibility of a low turnout among African Americans. “They expect black turnout will let down since Obama’s election,” he notes.

As for issues, “The contest is a referendum on Bill Jefferson, whether or not he will be re-elected or defeated before his trial,” says Lee, then adds, “Whether he’s re-elected or defeated, he’s still got to deal with the trial.”

A poll commissioned by the Republicans showed Gao beating Jefferson 50% to 35%. In the survey, blacks gave Jefferson a 62% favorable rating; whites gave him a 96% unfavorable rating. Although the closeness of the outcome may surprise some folks, SPR rates this one Likely Democratic.

4^th District (Shreveport, etc.)

In the 4^th District (Shreveport, etc.), in the contest to replace retired US Rep. Jim McCrery (R) who is retiring, the Democratic nominee is Paul Carmouche, the district attorney for Caddo Parish (Shreveport) for the last 30 years. Carmouche, 65, was the early favorite and continues to be a strong contender. However, some polls show him several points behind the Republican nominee, John Fleming, a physician and well-to-do businessman (Subway shops, etc.), including a SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call taken November 17-18, which gave Fleming a slim 47%-45% lead.

Fleming did not have the support of out-going Congressman McCrery (R) in the primaries, but McCrery has since endorsed him. Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) has stumped in the district with Fleming, as has Vice President Dick Cheney (R), who - despite national trends - is popular with many conservatives. Fleming is consistently conservative, though he did catch some flak for a somewhat pragmatic comment about some businesses needing immigrant labor. The GOP has launched a strongly negative campaign against Carmouche, based on several cases where criminals prosecuted by Carmouche got out and later committed crimes, a la Willie Horton.

Carmouche is running as a professed “Blue Dog Democrat,” and takes conservative positions on abortion and other social issues. He stresses the economy and the need to have bipartisan government in Washington. He has criticized Fleming for supporting the “Fair Tax,” which would substitute a national sales tax for the income tax. While he has a long record as district attorney, he has mostly been re-elected with weak or no opposition. A number of sheriffs and other district attorneys are supporting him.

Both sides are spending heavily, aided by generous contributions from the national party committees. On Nov. 4, John McCain carried the district by 19 points, but US Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) managed a 3-point edge in the district.