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It's McCain by one on election morning

January 29, 2008 — John McCain has a one-point lead going into Election Day in what could be the most important presidential primary race in America this year. Our final overnight poll of the Florida Republican primary came out like this:

John McCain (31%)
Mitt Romney (30%)
Mike Huckabee (15%)
Rudy Giuliani (13%)
Ron Paul (2%)
Other (2%)
Undecided (7%)

The poll sampled 813 registered Florida voters who have already voted by early or absentee in the Florida Republican presidential primary, or who plan to vote in that primary today, Election Day. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.

The data have been weighted for age, gender, race, party affiliation and geographical distribution across Florida.

The poll is statistical tie, given the three-and-a-half percent margin of error.

McCain has been trending upwards for the last two days, after his endorsement by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has had time to sink into the public’s mind. It’ll be known tonight whether that surprising late support by Crist will mean a gush of votes today that lifts McCain to a shocking win, or whether it has only closed the gap enough to make for a narrow Romney win instead of a convincing one.

Of the 12% total in the “Other” and “Undecided” from our Sunday night poll, one-quarter have apparently made up their minds. Also, “protest” candidate Ron Paul’s support has sunk by at least half over the past several days. And Rudy Giuliani’s support has dwindled from 16% to 13% since the weekend. Those votes are shifting to the two leading candidates, and they will decide the race.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that the expected record turnout today may boost McCain’s comeback chances. New voters are less prone to be rigidly ideological in their political thinking – just like McCain. Plus, there’s a critical property-tax amendment on the statewide ballot today that likely will lure “apolitical” voters to the polls.

But if the big turnout doesn’t include enough twenty-something voters, Romney could win. Young voters give McCain a boost.

A disproportionately large turnout of Latinos would probably throw the race McCain’s way.

Also of note: Among registered Republican voters who identified themselves as Democrats on the phone, Romney had a razor-thin edge. This is counter-intuitive phenomenon, but past polling has proved its strange validity.

Rural voters, especially in north Florida, sometimes vote Republican but personally identify themselves with the rural Southern “Dixiecrat” tradition. It’s likely they’ve voted GOP in past election cycles because the national Democratic Party’s nominees were too liberal to win their support. The de facto conservative instincts of these voters – despite their self-identification – is evidenced by their narrow support for the more conservative Romney over moderate McCain