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Outlook for 2009

January 5, 2009 — Considering the unexpected ups and downs of 2008, there’s no clear roadmap for 2009. There are, however, plenty of clues to important stories that will be making the headlines in Dixie this year. Here, state by state, are some of the events -- affecting both politics and economics in the South -- that are likely to make news.

Alabama

The big news, probably this spring, will be an 11th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling upholding or overthrowing the conviction of former Gov. Don Siegelman (D) on corruption charges, or granting him a new trial. Siegelman made news last year when he was released from prison until his appeal could be heard.

Arkansas

Gov. Mike Beebe (D) will be trying to get a $300 million program to attract more industry to Arkansas through the legislature. The funds would come from the state’s surplus, which lawmakers might prefer to use for projects in their own districts. This is the first year that the legislature is meeting annually, instead of biannually, and there’s speculation that it will strength the hand of the lawmakers at the expense of the governor.

Florida

Look for former Gov. Jeb Bush’s (R) announcement that he will -- or won’t -- seek the US Senate seat of retiring US Sen. Mel Martinez (R). If Bush runs, he’ll more or less clear the field. If he doesn’t, look for a battle-royal within and between both political parties. Also, key an eye on Gov. Charlie Crist’s (R) travel schedule. Is he making trips to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina?

Georgia

The big story in the Peach State, says InsiderAdvantage Georgia editor Dick Pettys, is “how the state deals with the projected $2 billion shortfall.” With only $1 billion in the reserve, Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) is proposing cuts of 8% or more. Even though Perdue and a majority in both legislative chambers are Republicans, there are likely to be some fights. In the midst of all this, legislators and other politics will begin jockeying for the 2010 races -- governor, lieutenant governor, etc.

Kentucky

Gov. Steve Beshear (D), facing nearly a $1 billion deficit, will try to get a recession-era budget passed that keeps education fully funded by doubling the tax on cigarettes to $1 a pack.  Last year, Bluegrass lawmakers turned down his key campaign proposal, to expand casino gambling. Can his new plan do better?

Louisiana

US Sen. David Vitter (R), a rock-solid conservative, was tainted with scandal in 2007 when his name showed up on a list of clients of the “DC Madam,” operator of a call-girl business in the nation’s scandal. This year, watch to see if Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) begins gearing up to challenge Vitter in the 2010 primary.

Mississippi

In 2008, there was “Scruggs I,” the name Magnolia State observers are calling the conviction and imprisonment of famous trial attorney (tobacco, asbestos, etc.) Richard “Dickie” Scruggs on charges of trying to bribe a judge, dominated the news. In 2009, look for “Scruggs II,” the expected indictment of the once-prominent lawyer in another bribery-related case. The prospect of a second trial got a boost after another Mississippi attorney, Joseph “Joey” Langston, pled guilty to involvement in a different bribery case and has since testified a dozen or so times before a grand jury. Speculation abounds that an indictment may be handed down later this month. Scruggs, though a big-time Democrat, is the brother-in-law of former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS).

North Carolina

“The big thing here is, how do we cope with the recession?” says Ferrell Guillory, director of UNC-Chapel Hill’s Program on Public Life, who forecasts the coming legislative session “will likely be a long contentious session.” Budget battles will center on what gets cut and what doesn’t, an ugly process. At stake will be the welfare of the state’s highly regarded university system, school reform programs, and mental health programs. The health of Charlotte’s nationally important banks may also come up. Newly elected Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) will be working with a Democratic legislature, but that doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing.

Oklahoma

Gov. Brad Henry (D) faces a legislature with both houses under GOP control for the first time in modern history. The first big fight will likely be over tort reform, backed by GOP lawmakers and some Democrats, but opposed by Henry. The governor has the upper hand, says University of Oklahoma poly sci prof Keith Gaddie, since it will take a two-thirds vote in each chamber to overturn the governor’s almost certain veto.  

South Carolina

Gov. Mark Sanford (R) will be dealing with serious budget problems, but it won’t help that the legislature, albeit controlled by his fellow Republicans, “will stay at war” with the governor, as one former legislator -- still in the know -- puts it. There’s also a budding controversy over recorded-vs.-unrecorded votes in the House, with one legislator making an issue of it, perhaps as a platform for a bid for lieutenant governor.

Tennessee

Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), a pragmatic, can-do sort of governor, is facing a $1 billion deficit -- “That’s huge,” says Tennessee Journal editor Ed Cromer. Bredesen is expected to ask the legislature to grant him more authority to deal with economic conditions that may or may not develop. He may have a tougher time now that he faces two Republican houses in the legislature, the first time that’s occurred since 1869. However, notes Cromer, in the last session, Bredesen “probably had fewer problems with the Senate Republicans than the House Democrats.”

Texas

The big Lone Star State story will come January 13 when the Texas House of Representatives re-elects Speaker Tom Craddick (R), or chooses one of his dozen or more challengers. So far, 64 Democrats and 15 Republicans have publicly declared they won’t vote for Craddick, -- that’s a four-vote majority of 79. But whether all of Craddick’s foes can agree on an alternative speaker may be a major hurdle.

Virginia