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Are Hispanics more conservative than we thought?

February 1, 2010 —

In my last column “Did Hispanics Catapult Brown Into The U.S. Senate?” I revealed evidence from a Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll that Republican Scott Brown won 76.9% of the Hispanic vote in a pre-election survey that did a better job of forecasting the race than most national and local polls I showed how important the Hispanic vote was in preventing Coakley from firing up her base, something that mattered more than capturing independents. 

What I didn’t reveal was why.  After all, we think we know the Hispanic voter.  It’s someone who recently immigrated to the United States, who resents the need to learn English, who holds socially liberal views, who came to the U.S. seeking welfare, right? 

First of all, only about 40% of Hispanics are identified as foreign-born, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In a Population and Development Review article from 2006, 96 percent of Chicanos reported a preference for speaking English in their homes, even in border areas. 

There’s even more evidence that busts our myth of the Hispanic voter.  In a survey conducted by the Pew Hispanic Forum, people were asked “Is the goal of teaching English to the children of immigrant families very important?”  Amazingly, Latinos said yes at higher rates (92%) than even whites (87%).

Hispanics are also far more socially conservative on issues of gay rights and abortion than whites.  According to an article in the U.S. Times “A comprehensive national survey of U.S. Hispanics by the Pew Hispanic Center and the Kaiser Family Foundation showed that 72 percent of Hispanics believe that homosexual sex between adults is "unacceptable," compared to 59 percent of whites. And they were pretty steamed about that Massachusetts ruling on same-sex marriage, which perhaps played into Scott Brown’s hands in giving him a 3:1 edge in the Hispanic vote in that Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll.   Maybe that’s why George W. Bush made such an effort to win the Hispanic vote.  And it paid off.  While Republicans got 21% of the Hispanic vote in 1996. Bush got 35% of the Hispanic vote in 2000 and 44% in 2004, against a Catholic!  So why did Hispanics desert McCain in 2008  by giving a man who did his best to woo the Latino vote only 31%? 

A lot of it probably has more to do with the demonization of Hispanics by conservatives in 2006 and 2008 under the banner of a vitriolic anti-immigrant sentiment than anything McCain did.  Hispanics are proud folks who don’t like taking shots just because of their last name. But clearly Hispanics rejected Coakley’s pro-immigrant policy, showing that maybe Hispanics don’t believe in unfettered immigration or rewarding those who jumped in line ahead of those who came here legally. 

It’s a wake up call for Democrats, who not only take Hispanics for granted, but misunderstand what they want.  It’s also a message for Republicans: don’t slam a growing segment of the population who is otherwise receptive to your views.  Brown seemed to strike the right chord with Hispanics in Massachusetts that’s absent in some “populist” attacks. The Hispanic vote will matter this year, in two years, and beyond.  The U.S. Census Bureau showed that Hispanics made up 11% of the population in 1997.  By 2050, that number is expected to explode to 25% The political party that actually knows the Hispanic voter is going to be the real winner.  

John A. Tures is Associate Professor of Political Science at LaGrange College in LaGrange, Georgia.