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Florida’s Three Cuban Representatives Face Challenges

February 25, 2008 —

A discernible, though not massive, trend toward the Democratic Party among South Florida voters has also been evident among the state’s Hispanic voters and has led the Democrats to mount significant challenges to the state’s three Republican Cuban-American members of Congress, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

All three challengers, like the incumbents, are Latino. Alejandro Miyar, a spokesman for the Florida Democratic Party, says South Florida “is becoming more Democratic by the seconds. The voting record shows that, even in the Hispanic precincts.” He adds that 2008 “might be a year where, from the turn-out perspective, the Democratic challengers have to be taken seriously.”

But Al Cardenas, a former chair of the state GOP, says “These are three entrenched incumbents in districts that have historically voted Republican strongly for president, governor and senator as well as congress… It would be difficult to place any of them in the vulnerable category.” And a Republican consultant long active in the state says, “I’d be shocked to see any of them lose.” He also notes that all three backed John McCain in Florida’s recent presidential primary and he ran strongly in their districts.  

All three Cuban lawmakers have voted against the conservative line on several key issues in the 109^th Congress. For example, they consistently support gay rights, including opposing a ban on same-sex marriage. And on immigration, they opposed building a fence on the US border with Mexico. On Cuba-specific issues, the incumbents and the challengers support the continuation of the US embargo on Cuba in the face of Fidel Castro’s handing over power to his brother Raul Castro, though some GOPers are suggesting otherwise. Unlike the incumbents, however, the challengers favor a relaxation of current rules on Americans visiting their family members in Cuba.

21^st District (Broward County, Miami/Dade)

The most competitive contest is expected to be Raul Martinez’s (D) spirited challenge to Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R), currently serving his eighth term in the US House. Diaz-Balart won re-election in 2006 with 59% of the vote, down from his 73% in 2004. He has not, however, faced an opponent as popular and flamboyant as Martinez, who served as the popular mayor of heavily Republican Hialeah for some 30 years. Hialeah, which accounts for about 40% of the district, is 80% Republican, indicating that Martinez may be able to attract support from some Republican voters; indeed, several local Republican officeholders were present when he announced his candidacy for Congress. “It’s a battle of the titans,” says Miyar, “and some people think that Raul is more of a titan than Lincoln.”

Martinez, 58, does have some baggage, however. In the 1980s, he was convicted of federal corruption charges, but won his case on appeal and subsequent trials ended in mistrials. Of interest: The prosecuting attorney against Martinez was Dexter Lehtinen, husband of US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

A Cuban-American, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, 53, is the scion of a prominent pre-Castro family; his father, grandfather and uncle served in the Cuban Congress. Diaz-Balart and his brother, US Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R), “are like political royalty,” says one GOP source. Moreover, Lincoln has built up a network of supporters through years of public service, including six years in the Florida legislature prior to his election to Congress.

There has been a recent trend to the Democrats in this district. According to the Miami Herald, the district has 124,744 registered Republican and 101,267 Democrats, reflecting a loss of 4,558 Republicans but a gain of only 111 Democrats since 2006; independent voters have increased to 71,208.  However, the district’s demographics and voting history strongly favor the GOP. The electorate is 70% Hispanic, 21% white and only 7% African American. Bush carried the district with 57% in 2004, 58% in 2000.

While Diaz-Balart has a conservative voting record overall, he is relatively liberal -- 53%, according to the National Journal -- on social issues, which should help him with independent voters. And in addition to his well-known name and the powers of incumbency, Diaz-Balart has done a good job of amassing a hefty war chest. At the end of 2007, he had $904,000 on hand. Martinez will not file a financial report until the end of the current quarter, “but he’s doing rather well,” says Miyar.

Nevertheless, even some Republicans, noting that Martinez is not only well-known but can also raise money, concede that the feisty Democrat will give Diaz-Balart a good fight. Leans Republican.

25^th District (Naples, Miami/Dade)

Third-termer Mario Diaz-Balart (R), 46, Lincoln’s younger brother, also faces a Democratic opponent with significant credentials. Joe Garcia is chairman of the Miami/Dade Democratic Party (he will resign for this campaign) and is known for his political acumen. “He’s a brilliant strategist and all pumped up” for the race, says Miyar. Perhaps more importantly, Garcia is the former director of the Cuban American National Foundation, an influential group of Cuban-Americans concerned about Havana’s Communist regime. In 1993, Garcia lost a race for Miami-Dade Commissioner. While he is expected to mount a substantial campaign, he does not have the name identification nor experience holding elective office that help make Martinez a strong challenger against Lincoln. However, Garcia is pushing some major issues, including the war in Iraq, the economy, and high homeowner insurance rates in hurricane-prone Florida. On the down side, Garcia will have to move from Miami Beach outside of the district into the boundaries of the 25^th District.

Like his brother Lincoln, Mario represents a Republican district that shows some signs of moving toward the Democrats. In 2004, Mario was unopposed, but in 2006, his relatively unknown opponent held him to a 58%-42% victory. Bush won the district by 55% in 2000, 56% in 2004. And the district is 62% Hispanic, 24% white and 10% black, a favorable mix for the GOP. Prior to his election to Congress, he served 14 years in the Florida legislature, where he was named “most effective legislator” by the Miami Herald in 1996. Mario has a generally conservative voting record, except on some social issues. He had $466,000 cash on hand at the end of 2007. Likely Republican.

18^th District (Miami, etc.)

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R), 55, is serving her ninth term in Congress. She was in the state senate prior to her election to Congress and was an educator. Like the Diaz-Balart brothers, she represents a district highly favorable to a Latino Republican -- it’s population is 63% Hispanic, 30% white and only 6% black. There are 126,152 registered Republicans in the 18^th District, according to the Miami Herald, to 105,400 Democrats, with the GOP losing some 2,400 in the past two years and the Democrats gaining some 2,000. Ros-Lehtinen was re-elected with 65% in 2004, 62% in 2006.

Ros-Lehtinen is the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has been aggressive in her opposition to the Castro regime and to leftist movements in Latin America. She recently urged the US Justice Department to charge Fidel Castro with murder for the deaths of four Americans looking for Cuban refugees in the waters between Florida and Cuba, and has urged an investigation into the oil agreement between Iran and the anti-American Hugo Chavez regime in Venezuela. She has a moderate voting record on domestic issues, is very popular in her district, and is a good fund-raiser. At the end of last year, she had $1,778,000 on hand.

The Democratic challenger is Annette Taddeo, 40, a Colombia-born business executive. While she is a respectable contender, she has not sought nor held public office before and is not sufficiently well-known to mount as significant a challenge as Democrats are expected to wage against the two Diaz-Balart brothers. Taddeo is stressing criticism of the Bush Administration policies, especially in Iraq. Safe Republican.