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Fundraising Shows Hot Competition for Dixie’s US House Seats

February 6, 2012 — Gauging reelection chances by the amount of money a candidate is raising isn’t a sure-fire predictor of election returns, but it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place. The latest financial reports suggest that there will be a number of highly competitive US House races in the South this fall, with a number of Republican freshmen elected in the 2010 GOP landslide facing well-financed Democratic challengers and an equal or larger number of Democrats who had close calls last time attracting Republicans who are raising serious money. The numbers are from the reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for the 4^th Quarter of 2011, made public on January 31, 2012.On the Republican side, at least four vulnerable freshmen – those elected by 55 percent or less –are looking at Democratic challengers who are bringing in a lot of cash: Quico Canseco (TX23), Scott Rigell (VA2), Blake Farenthold (TX27) and Steve Southerland (FL2). In each case, the Republican incumbents have substantial money leads, but the Democrats are putting enough in the kitty to get their message out and create competitive races this fall. Worth noting is that freshman Allen West (FL22) was facing two strong Democratic money-raisers, former West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel and businessman Patrick Murphy, each of whom has brought in some $1.4 million, but will now run in a different, post-redistricted district, where his prospects will be stronger. West, a favorite of the GOP Right across the nation, has raised a whopping $5.8 million, more than any other Southern member of Congress. With West’s old district likely to be an open one, other Democrats may get in the race for that seat.The seven vulnerable Southern Democratic members of Congress have raised an average of $727,000 for the 2012 campaign, compared to $567,000 for the 15 vulnerable Dixie Republicans (excluding West’s out-lying megabucks). Democrats have been raking in the cash in part because they have to: Five of them have Republican foes who are already raising significant cash. Only two of the Democrats are so far home free. They are Sanford Bishop (GA2) and John Yarmuth (KY3), and not surprisingly, both trail their fellow vulnerable Democrats in money raised.The aggressive GOP challenges are developing in large part because of redistricting, which is not yet fully reflected in the FEC reports. In Texas, where the new map is still being drawn by a federal court, the odds have encouraged Republicans to line up to oppose nine-term Lloyd Doggett (TX25), who has eight Republican opponents, five of whom have raised more than $100,000, including two who are raising very serious bucks – $840,000 for businessman David Garrison and $765,000 for former Texas Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams. (Doggett, however, does have a very hefty $3,382,000 cash-on-hand.) In North Caroline, two-term Larry Kissell (NC8) has five GOPers building significant war chests. And in Kentucky, four-term Ben Chandler (KY6) has a repeat battle with Andy Barr, who has raised $431,000 – not bad for a challenger this early – to Chandler’s $893,000. One Democrat, three-term Health Shuler (NC11), has decided not to run because his new district has far fewer Democrats than his old one. Six Republicans were already raising money to challenge him in the new GOP-oriented district. And five-term Brad Miller (D) is retiring because he was put in the same district with 12-termer David Price (D).

Here, in descending order of the money raised by December 31 are the 16 Republican and seven Democratic members of Congress elected from the South by less than 55 percent in 2010.