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Virginia: Gilmore Leads Marshall in Battle for GOP Senate Nod

March 19, 2008 — The “mass meetings,” as they are called in Virginia, are underway to select an estimated six to nine thousand delegates to the state Republican convention on May 30-31, and initial reports indicate that the early favorite, former Gov. Jim Gilmore, is likely to win the GOP’s US Senate nomination. About 20 counties have already held their meetings and although Del. Bob Marshall is running well in his Northern Virginia bailiwick, in the rest of the state Gilmore’s campaign estimates their candidate is carrying virtually every county. Only Loudon County, which Marshall represents in the legislature, appears to have elected a majority of pro-Marshall delegates.  

“The consensus is that Gilmore will win [the nomination], but that it may be more difficult than originally thought,” says Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Marshall is doing well in some of the very conservative county parties, like Loudon and Prince William, up there in Northern Virginia.” Down state, notes Boyd Marcus, a campaign consultant for Gilmore, Marshall is only winning “anywhere from zero to a third” of the delegates. Another candidate, political unknown Robert Berry, is also running for the Republican nomination.

Marshall’s Challenge

While Marshall’s support is strongest in Northern Virginia, where the conservative wing of the GOP holds sway in many county Republican organizations, he has also managed to garner the support of some local party officials from other areas of the state. His strength among conservative activists is based on his strong stand in the legislature in opposition to abortion and to gay rights. This has been augmented in Northern Virginia by Marshall’s role in bringing a lawsuit to block a regional transportation tax. Marshall, 63, gained credibility when the Virginia Supreme Court recently ruled the tax unconstitutional. Marshall suffers, however, from not having the broad name ID that former governor Gilmore enjoys.

The significant minority that is backing Marshall is motivated by several factors. One is that many of these conservatives are not pleased with the presidential nomination of John McCain and are looking for a way to re-imprint their own stamp on the party, at least in Virginia. They also like Marshall’s strong stand on social issues and don’t like a position taken by Gilmore in the past, when he said he did not favor making abortions illegal in the first eight weeks of pregnancy. According to the Washington Post, Marshall’s campaign manager, Steve Waters, ran the Family Foundation anti-same-sex marriage campaign in Virginia in 2006.  Marshall is also helped by his out-going personality and his adherence to principles, even when they conflict with his party. He is, for example, a strong environmentalist and has had the support of the Sierra Club in the past.

Despite his apparent large lead in delegate support for the May 31 convention vote, Gilmore is not ignoring Marshall’s campaign. Last week, 23 GOP leaders, including Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Robert McDonnell, both prominent conservatives, endorsed Gilmore and urged the party to unite behind him as the candidate who offered the best chance of defeating Democrat Mark Warner in November.

Gilmore Sees McCain Coattails

Looking to the General Election, Marcus is confident that McCain will carry Virginia and “will be a significant benefit for us.” Sabato says that in the presidential election, Virginia will be competitive. He adds that the Republicans, in choosing McCain, are nominating “the candidate most likely to carry Virginia,” citing the state’s large number of veterans and military personnel. Moreover, McCain is the kind of Republican who can win votes in Northern Virginia. In any case, however, Sabato sees the Democrats’ Mark Warner as a heavy -- if not prohibitive -- favorite in November.

Vice-Presidency a Factor?

One potential development that could affect the race is the prospect that either of two prominent Virginia Democrats could be tapped by Barack Obama for the vice-presidential nomination. If Obama should choose Gov. Tim Kaine (D), one of his campaign’s national co-chairs, the Democrats will be heavily favored to carry Virginia -- for the first time since 1964. There is also talk that Obama might ask Mark Warner to join his ticket. That would require the Democrats to quickly find another US Senate nominee. The betting is that they would pick one of the state’s Democratic congressmen or former lieutenant governor Don Beyer. Sabato notes that the choice of Beyer could help Gilmore in the General Election: “In 1997, Gilmore beat Beyer in a landslide for governor.”