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Predicting two tough races, to the percentage point

March 2, 2009 — Since the triumphs of African-Americans like Barack Obama, Deval Patrick, and David Paterson, more minorities are gambling on running for statewide office.  In fact, two such candidates are running next year: US Rep. Kendrick Meek in Florida for the Senate and US Rep. Artur Davis for Alabama Governor. 

How well will they and other prospective minority candidates do?  Ask most experts and they’ll offer a laundry list of factors, ranging from African-American percentages and turnout, campaign strategy, fundraising…elements we probably won’t know until after the election.  Couldn’t we have a simpler hypothesis?  And wouldn’t it be great if we could predict into the future a pair of “post-racial” elections?

My prior columns at Southern Political Report (“Will The Meek Inherit Florida” and “Will Davis Slay The General Election Goliath?”) document the importance of an African-American candidate’s ideology in statewide elections, and a declining emphasis on race itself.  In other words, voters may care more about whether you’re a liberal or not, as opposed to skin color.

To make the prediction of electoral margin of victory, I examine the American Conservative Union voting scores of three other African-Americans from the U.S. House of Representatives who sought a statewide office: US Rep. Alan Wheat of Missouri (1994), US Rep. Denise Majette of Georgia (2004), and US Rep. Harold E. Ford, Jr. of Tennessee (2006).  I look at their margin of victory in both races.  My results show that the more moderate an African-American candidate is, the closer the electoral margin of victory is. 

Wheat had the most liberal record, and he got clobbered by more than 20 percentage points.  Majette was only slightly less liberal, and she lost her race (58%-40%).  Ford, who was 16 points “more centrist” in his ACU ratings, lost his battle by only three percentage points that year.

To determine how well Meek and Davis would do, I plug in their numbers to the formula, and calculate their margin of victory or defeat. Meek, whose ACU rating is just below a “10” (with 0 being completely liberal and 100 being completely conservative) between 2003 and 2007 (the 2008 ACU numbers aren’t ready yet), is predicted to lose his race to the generic Republican (Governor Charlie Crist, Congressman Connie Mack IV, or Congressman Vern Buchanan) by 13.466 percentage points.  I’m predicting the race to go 56.7 to 43.3 for the Grand Old Party (GOP).

Congressman Davis, who has an ACU rating of more than 25, fares a lot better in the model.  My calculations show that he would win his race by 3.632 percentage points against a generic GOP opponent (be it Terry Everett, Jo Bonner, Tim James, Luther Strange, Rob Riley or even Roy Moore).  It’ll be 51.8% to 48.1% in Alabama next year, if ideology counts more for voters.

Of course, I have only a tiny sample (few African-American members of Congress have run for statewide office).  And a lot of things can happen between now and November of 2010.  But the more moderate the candidate is, the more likely a minority could win at the statewide level.  Could Congressmen David Scott and Sanford Bishop do well in future elections here in Georgia?  Based upon their relatively centrist voting scores, the answer is “signs point to yes” in my magic 8-ball formula.