New Insider Advantage Survey
Clinton May be Stronger in Texas Primary Than Her Own Campaign Realizes
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
March 3, 2008 — A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of Texas runs contrary to most surveys of the state’s Democratic presidential contest. We show Sen. Hillary Clinton with the lead. Only PPP, a Democratic polling firm based in North Carolina, also shows Clinton leading. All other polls over the race’s final days have Obama leading. Our survey of 609 likely Democratic primary voters was conducted March 2. It has been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%. The results were: Clinton: 49%
Obama: 44%
Undecided: 7% InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery: “This is a lonely and difficult spot for a pollster. However, we have polled thousands of voters in Texas and have yet to show Sen. Obama leading. Our weighting is designed to discount Hispanic turnout in areas where historically their turnout has been lighter, and to maximize potential African-American turnout. Even with this model, which we believe to be accurate, though obviously not a perfect situation for Clinton, she leads. “Moreover, in an entirely separate survey that we conducted of early voters, Clinton led by a 55%-to-43% margin. While much of this early vote is probably accounted for in the poll cited above – because we ask the inclusive question, “If the election were held today?,” the separate survey that measured Clinton’s clear edge among early voters may help explain Clinton’s overall edge in our poll. “It is entirely possible that we have missed the mark here, given that so many pollsters have shown Sen. Obama with a growing lead. But I would note that the most recent surveys all indicate a tightening of the race; and also that the breakdown by demographics in our survey is amazingly similar to the PPP numbers. If nothing else, it appears that Texas truly is up for grabs,” Towery said. (click here for crosstabs) |
