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South Carolina 2010 governor’s race taking shape

March 4, 2009 —

On the GOP side, the early leader is state Attorney General Henry McMaster, who has been traveling the state for months speaking to county Republican groups. A past chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party, McMaster already has a broad network of friends and supporters among party activists in the state’s 46 counties. He has also been elected attorney general twice, giving him substantial name ID across the state. He has a pro-active record as attorney general, advocating stiff anti-crime laws, such as the abolition of parole for those convicted of any crime. McMaster was a major backer of John McCain in last year’s Republican Primary and in February, McCain agreed to headline a Washington, DC, fundraiser for McMaster

The second strongest Republican is probably Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, 39, the Peck’s Bad Boy of South Carolina politics. Bauer got lots of bad ink during the campaign four years ago for collecting speeding tickets and crashing a private plane. But he’s known as a hard worker. Moreover, he’s instituted a number of programs to assist senior citizens and is popular with them. “Everyone talks about Andre as ‘Don’t sell him short,’ ‘Don’t count him out,’ and ‘He works harder than anybody else,’” says a long time GOP operative, “but they also say, ‘When will there be another episode?’”

The long shot is US Rep. Gresham Barrett, now in his fourth term and said to be tired of Washington, especially since his party is in the minority. Barrett is well-known mainly in his 3^rd District (Greenwood, etc.), but has lately been speaking across the state. Observers say he impresses his audiences and that he may end up being stronger than he appears at first blush. Moreover, “he’s well-connected with members of the [state] House and Senate, who are hoping for somebody they think they can work with,” says the political pro (R).

Other candidates could be in the GOP primary. Furman University political science professor Brent Nelson has announced that he is running. However, he is unknown in Republican Party circles in the state. Carroll Campbell III, son of the late popular Republican governor, also gets mentioned.

A private poll of GOP voters taken in mid-February showed McMaster leading Bauer 53% to 43% and showed McMaster leading Barrett 63% to 37%.

The leading Democrat at this point is state Sen. Vincent Sheheen of Camden. Sheheen is a member of one of the most politically active families in the state. His grandfather, Austin Sheheen Sr., was mayor of Camden for ten years; his uncle, Austin Sheheen Jr., was chairman of the Kershaw County Council; and another uncle, Bob Sheheen, served as speaker of the South Carolina House of Representatives. Vincent Sheheen is young (37), likeable and known for his ability to work across party lines. Sheheen has already announced and filed the necessary forms to begin raising money for the race.

Another Democrat who has announced is Charleston state Sen. Robert Ford. A 15-year veteran of the legislature, Ford, who is African-American, was active in the effort to remove the Confederate battle flag from atop the state capitol dome. He supports efforts to make video poker legal to bring in much needed revenue to the state. He was an active backer of Hillary Clinton in last year’s presidential primary. Ford could be strong in the primary, which is about 50% black, but would be weak in the General Election.

Mullins McLeod, an attorney and former chairman of the Charleston County Democratic Party, is considering the race and “has been talking to money people,” says one source. McLeod is from a family that has been active in state and local politics for decades; his uncle, Walton McLeod, is currently serving in the state House of Representatives from Newberry County in the upper part of the state.

House Minority Leader Harry Ott (D) is also looking at the race. From rural Calhoun County, Ott is a farmer and prominent civic leader. While the state’s farm vote is smaller than it used to be, Ott would still draw significant support among Democratic state representatives.

Two other Democrats get mentioned, but have so far remained undecided about the race. Joe Erwin, a wealthy Greenville public relations executive and former chair of the state Democratic Party is a potential candidate, as is Inez Tenenbaum, former state Superintendent of Education, who lost (44%) a US Senate race to Jim DeMint (R) in 2004.

Republican nominees are usually favored in this GOP stronghold, but this year, with unemployment more than 10% on a Republican governor’s watch, could offer an opportunity to the Democrats. “If you play the issues right, about job creation, a lot of hay could be made,” says former Democratic National Committeeman Waring Howe. Chip Felkel, a Greenville campaign consultant (R), told SPR, “If the [Republican] Party has any hopes of getting out of this national malaise, [the primary] cannot be about who can out-conservative the others. Even in South Carolina, the Republican Party will be making a grave error if we allow ourselves to be reddest of the red… Most of the public is looking for something that will work.” Stay tuned.