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Florida: Ten hot congressional races next year

March 9, 2009 — Democrats gained two congressional seats in the Sunshine State last year and came close in several more districts. Republicans see the Democratic freshmen as especially vulnerable in 2010. Moreover, there are several districts where the incumbents are stepping down -- or may step down -- to seek statewide office, creating much sought-after open seats. And at least one incumbent is facing a contested primary.

Florida lawmakers cannot raise funds while the legislature is in session, so expect more definitive announcements after the legislature adjourns in May. For now, however, the political scuttlebutt is as busy as every.

It is far too early to make serious projections about next year’s winners and losers. Given the nation’s -- and the world’s -- serious economic problems, and the precedent-breaking proposals by President Obama that have received little or no support from the GOP, major differences between the congressional candidates of the two parties are likely to be front and center in these contests. How the voting public will view them remains to be seen.

Here’s what SPR is hearing about potential competitive contests next year in 10 Florida districts.

2^nd (Tallahassee, etc.):  Seventh-termer US Rep. Allen Boyd (D), who voted against the Obama stimulus package the first time, then for it the second time, is facing a primary challenge from term-limited state Senate Majority Leader Al Lawson (D).

8^th (Orlando, etc.) Alan Grayson (D) defeated Ric Keller (R) by a narrow 52% last year. Now Grayson is attracting attention for his aggressive questioning -- hounding? -- of Wall Street witnesses at hearings. On the money, say Democrats. Out of line and too liberal, say Republicans. Todd Long, a conservative talk show host who lost (47%) a primary challenge to Keller in 2008, has already announced. National GOP leaders are talking to Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty (R). Former state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster (R), tight with conservative Christians, is also looking at the race. Word is that either Crotty or Webster will run, but not both, to avoid a divisive primary. The district is usually competitive, but Obama carried it by 85,000 votes last year.

10^th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Bill Young (R), in his 20^th term, is the perennial subject of retirement rumors and this year is no exception. If he stays put, he’s a strong re-election bet (he won by 61% last year). Nevertheless, several potential challengers are exploring the race, with or without Young.

12^th  (Lakeland, etc.) Fifth-termer Adam Putnam (R), who as Republican Conference chairman at age 34 was an up-and-coming part of the GOP leadership, is stepping down to run for Florida state Agriculture Commissioner. On the GOP side, former state Sen. Dennis Ross (R) has announced and already has former Gov. Jeb Bush’s support. State Sen. Paula Dockery (R) is also considering the race. For the Democrats, Polk County Supervisor of Elections Lori Edwards (D) and 2008 nominee Doug Tudor (D) who got 41% against Putnam have both announced. This one will be “one of the top seats in the country for competitiveness,” says Florida Democratic spokesman Eric Jotkoff. The GOP has traditionally been strong here, but Obama and McCain were even-steven in the district in 2008.

13^th (Sarasota, etc.) Second-termer Vern Buchanan (R), after a razor-thin win in 2006, won with 56% last year, but he’s talking about a US Senate bid. If he stays in the House, he’ll be a heavy favorite, though not without opposition -- the Democrats don’t like him. If the seat is open, there will be a competitive race, with the GOP the early but not prohibitive favorite.

16^th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Tom Rooney (R) is on the Democrats’ target list mainly because he’s a freshman. His 60% win in 2008 was impressive, but his foe, freshman Tim Mahoney (D), was weakened by a sex scandal, so Democrats plan to make a major effort here. The district ranks third among the 435 congressional districts for projected mortgage foreclosures in 2009, says Politico, and that’s likely to be an issue.

17^th (Miami, etc.) Now in his fifth term, Kendrick Meek (D) is stepping down to run for the US Senate next year, creating an open seat in this heavily Democratic district. Potential contenders (D) in this majority-black bailiwick include state Reps. Ronald Brise, Phillip Brutus and Yolly Roberson; state Sen. Frederica Wilson; activist Marleine Bastien; and Miami Gardens councilman Andre Williams.

22^nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) Second-termer Ron Klein (D) won by an unexpectedly tepid 55% last year against spirited opposition. Allen West, the retired Army office who ran in 2008, has already announced. Whether a GOP lawmaker will also run will come clear after the legislature adjourns. There is a possibility that Klein will run for the US Senate; if so, look for a lot more contenders. The district leans Democratic, but not decisively.

24^th (Orlando, etc.) Freshman Suzanne Kosmas (D) won with 57% last year in this Republican-leaning district, in part because of ethical problems on the part of then-incumbent Tom Feeney (R). Look for a strong Republican challenge next year, with significant backing from Washington. Among those looking at the race are state Reps. Dorothy Hukill and Sandy Addams, state Sen. Lee Constantine, and anesthesiologist Ken Miller.

25^th (Miami, etc.) Democrats mounted well-financed challenges last year against all three of Florida’s Cuban-American Republicans, but the only one that came close to pay dirt was the campaign against 4th-termer Mario Diaz-Balart (R), who won with an unimpressive 53% over Dade County Democratic Chairman Joe Garcia. Whether Garcia will run again isn’t clear, but in his website letter to supporters after his 2008 race, he said, “Our work is far from finished. In fact, it has just begun.” Stay tuned.