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Reading the financial tea leaves

April 20, 2009 — The Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports for the 1^st Quarter are in, and although almost none of the potential challengers have begun raising funds, these reports from the incumbents give us some early clues for handicapping the 2010 US House races. They answer such questions as whether vulnerable incumbents -- especially freshmen -- are getting prepared for a likely tough challenge next year. They also provide evidence, though not proof, as to whether long-time members are planning to wage another campaign, or are considering retirement, or whether an incumbent may be considering a statewide race.

 Nine freshman Democrats will be facing voters in the South next year, most of them in districts that have voted Republican in the past. Five of them raised more than $200,000 in the 1^st Quarter, a healthy sum that places them in the top one-fourth among the 32 potentially competitive Southern districts with significant financial data to report (see below). They are Bobby Bright in Alabama 2, Parker Griffith in Alabama 5, Suzanne Kosmas in Florida 24, Glenn Nye in Virginia 2 and Tom Perriello in Virginia 5.

Two other Democratic freshmen raised less than $200,000, but have $280,000 or more cash-on-hand: Alan Grayson in Florida 8 and Gerry Connolly in Virginia 11.

 The blue ribbon for raising the most cash of any freshman -- D or R -- this year goes to Nye, who sits in a vulnerable district but still pulled in $380,000 by March 31 and had $357,000 on hand. The two laggards among the Democratic freshmen were Larry Kissell in North Carolina 8 and Ciro Rodriguez in Texas 23; both of them have had weak fundraising in the past.

 Other Democrats in potentially close races also reported raising significant cash.  Second-termer Ron Klein in Florida 22 raised an impressive $365,000 and has a whopping $1,757,000 on hand, which he could use as seed money for a US Senate bid next year. Travis Childers in Mississippi 1, with $203,000 raised by March 31, shows this second-term Democrat is not resting on his laurels. Four-term Jim Marshall in Georgia 8, who probably won’t face a tough challenge until after redistricting, still has some good insurance, with $354,000 on hand. Two-termer Heath Shuler in North Carolina 11 has a major $1,052,000 on hand, which suggests he raked in some extra cash when he was considering a US Senate bid that he has since declined.

 On the Republican side, four of the five freshmen reported raising less money than the Democratic freshmen: Bill Posey in Florida 15, Tom Rooney in Florida 16, Brett Guthrie in Kentucky 2, and Joseph Cao in Louisiana 2. The exception was Bill Cassidy in Louisiana 6, who raised $279,000 as of March 31 and had $293,000 on hand. All of these GOP-held districts lean toward the Republicans so these freshmen may be less in need of a big war chest; the exception is Cao, who is in a heavily Democratic district.

 Several Republican lawmakers who had worrisome re-election battles last year have yet to raise substantial money. They may be banking on 2008 being the Democrats’ high-water mark, but the best way to make sure that is the case is to have money in the bank.  The Diaz-Balart brothers, nine-term Lincoln in Florida 21 and four-term Mario in Florida 25, each raised around $50,000, give or take, and neither has an impressive war chest on hand. John Culberson in Texas 7 has raised a tepid $106,000 and has $70,000 on hand. And third-termer Mike McCaul in Texas 10 raised $98,000, with only $62,000 on hand; however, McCaul has family connections that make financial problems unlikely for him.

 Two other Republicans who have faced tough races in the past have plenty of cash. Ten-term Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Florida 18 is sitting on $344,000. And third-termer Vern Buchanan in Florida 13 raised $526,000 in the 1^st Quarter, with $523,000 on hand, suggesting he may be getting ready for a statewide bid next year if the opportunity presents itself.

 Two other senior Republicans who are the subject of retirement rumors have raised little cash this quarter, but each has substantial funds in his war chest. Twenty-term Bill Young in Florida 10 raised only $1,300 this year, but he has $412,000 on hand. Similarly, five-term Henry Brown in South Carolina 1, who may face significant primary opposition in 2010, raised only $22,000, but has $482,000 on hand.

 In Virginia 5, former US Rep. Virgil Goode’s numbers are listed, but he has not announced that he will run for is old seat. He has been traveling the district, however, and his $159,000 on hand could provide a starting point for a 2010 race.

FEC Reports, US House, March 31, 2009

Incumbents in bold