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Georgia governor's race looks to be a wild one

April 22, 2010 —

As political analyst for WSB-TV, a pollster, and as head of InsiderAdvantage, which publishes JAMES, plus the Southern Political Report and InsiderAdvantageGeorgia, I look forward to the race for Georgia governor like a kid waiting for the biggest Christmas ever. 

On one side we have full cast of candidates running for the GOP nomination in what most national analysts believe will be a big Republican year across the nation. One thing polling shows us clearly is that voter turnout for the Georgia Republican primary may be the largest in the history of Georgia gubernatorial races. I mean massive.

So one might write off the Democrats. But not so quick. Their own primary might be a lot more interesting than people think. First, the biggest name, the candidate who leads all candidates of either party in fundraising, is former Gov. Roy Barnes. He is far and away the savviest political mind in the state. In fact, sometimes he can be too smart for his own good. But the man has an organization behind him that includes many of the state’s business leaders, top lawyers and big money-types – you name it. But for all of that, Barnes still should have a battle on his hands in the Democratic primary. I’ll get back to that.

The early focus will be on the Republicans. Consistently through the early polling, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine has led the growing field of candidates. That should come as no shock, given that he has held his high-profile statewide job since 1995. He’s enjoyed a steady stream of TV exposure for years, and on “lead-because-they-bleed” topics like storm damage, fires and floods. This has given Oxendine an early lead among a field of candidates that will become known by the time people vote. For now, though, these other candidates must accept that it takes time, money and a barrage of advertising on broadcast television, cable, radio and through the US mail to really grab voters by the lapels and make them take notice. That day is coming.

Oxendine has one fundamental problem – the state’s Republican “establishment” doesn’t want him as governor. Gov. Sonny Perdue isn’t just cool to the idea of an Oxendine nomination, he’s frosty cold to it. Why? Because Oxendine is the bull in the china shop. No one can “control” him. And some GOP insiders fear that various (unsubstantiated) charges of unethical behavior against Oxendine could drag him down in a general election campaign. Certainly no such charges have yet slowed down “The Ox." 

Besides, the GOP establishment doesn’t always get what it wants. In 1990, an admittedly smaller band of party insiders met repeatedly in a try at recruiting an alternative to Johnny Isakson, who eventually became the nominee. (There are some who still pray Isakson doesn’t recall those little meetings.)

With Oxendine as the leader going into the election season, does that mean he wins the nomination? No one can say for sure. Other candidates in the race include: former Secretary of State Karen Handel, who comes from north Fulton County, the GOP epicenter of Georgia; former state Sen. Eric Johnson, who served as president pro-tem, and more or less ran the Republican-controlled Senate for several years; recently resigned Congressman Nathan Deal, who switched to the Republicans in the mid-1990s; plus state Reps. Austin Scott and Jeff Chapman. Then there is the wildcard in the race, self-proclaimed multimillionaire Ray Boyd. Out of the blue he decided to plunk down $2 million of his own money to seek the GOP nomination.

But first let’s loop back and describe the full field running for the Democratic nomination. Much to the chagrin of Barnes, Attorney General Thurbert Baker has tossed his hat into the ring. Why is this so important? Because Baker must conjure in Barnes’ mind the unsettling memory of when another accomplished African American, former UN Ambassador Andrew Young, ran against Barnes when Barnes made his first try at running for governor in 1990. The difference is that back then, the Democratic primary was dominated by white voters.

This year’s Democratic contest will likely have 65% or more of its voters coming from the black community.  At first blush, the expected heavy black turnout might seem fatal to Barnes, providing that Baker, an African American, can raise enough money to properly introduce himself with a viable TV ad campaign. But, ironically, it could be that all frontrunner Barnes probably needs to do is get into a runoff, with Baker or any of the other candidates. If turnout in the Democratic primary can be expected to be comparatively modest this year, then the turnout in a runoff would be even more paltry. That would be to Barnes’ likely advantage. The strength of his long-established “machine” would likely get his voters to come out in numbers enough to award him the nomination.

Both Dubose Porter and David Poythress are gubernatorial material, no question. Persuading Democratic voters who have scant knowledge of them to feel the same may be another matter. Obviously, both men need to be able to raise enough campaign cash to elevate their name IDs and to get out their messages. If either can, and – critically – there is a very low turnout for the primary, then Porter or Poythress conceivably could slip into a runoff.   

Back on the GOP side, it looks now like it’s Oxendine against whoever among the field of candidates can force him into a primary runoff. Eric Johnson has been doing a commendable job of raising money of late. His face is starting to show up on TV. He just needs to do more of the same, perhaps lots more. If so, he could easily make a runoff.

Karen Handel has made recent, modest gains in the polls. Impressively, she’s done so without having “bought” this progress with substantial cash. Nevertheless, she needs to start raising more, as does everyone. Curiously, her seeming strength – that she is the only woman candidate among a list of men – is also her weakness, at least so far. She has earned a disappointing showing in polls among Republican women. This is perhaps not as surprising as one might guess. After all, Cathy Cox had a similar problem when she ran in the 2006 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Handel needs to concentrate on getting both women and men more used to the idea of a woman governor.

Nathan Deal is potentially a formidable candidate. Unfortunately for him, right when he needed early publicity to boost his profile among voters, he got a negative dose of it with media headlines about real or supposed ethical lapses on his part. This is doubly problematic because Deal’s modest name ID among voters outside his northern Georgia congressional district means that he has little margin for error if he hopes to make the runoff. He likely would help his cause of making that runoff if could find a way to shed his understandable Washington mindset, and instead home in on bread-and-butter state issues that matter to Georgians in their daily lives.

And then there’s Ray Boyd. Above I labeled him the “wildcard” in the race. The question is whether he will be an ace or a joker. The answer to that is probably Boyd’s choice. If his recent announcement that he’s putting $2 million of his own money into his upstart campaign was just for kicks and giggles, then he could fade like a shooting star after his initial rush of vanity is sated. But what if he’s really prepared to spend that kind of cash? And what if he spends it doing what he claims he will, by attacking other GOP candidates? Boyd likely can’t become governor, but he might purposely or inadvertently crown somebody else governor. Who among the GOP field might he attack? Who might he leave alone? The man could be a huge factor before things are done. 

The truth is that, Boyd or no Boyd, any of the candidates just mentioned could make a runoff. And then, who knows?Believe it that Roy Barnes would prefer to face John Oxendine in the general election. Barnes’ camp likely feels it could take advantage of some of Oxendine's perceived missteps from past years. If not Oxendine, Barnes likely would prefer to face Deal and his own ethical woes. At this juncture, there seems only one certainty: It’s going to be fun to watch!