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Will Landrieu “Swamp” Kennedy In Louisiana?

April 23, 2008 — Back in December of 2007, I wrote an article titled “Will the GOP get ‘lucky’ against Landrieu?”  I cited polls showing a tight four point race between US Senator Mary Landrieu and her opponent, State Treasurer John N. Kennedy.  I also noted historical trends indicating that 70 percent of all U.S. Senate Democrat casualties since 1992 came from the South.  

Since then, Kennedy’s numbers look as though voters think he is Ted Kennedy running on the ballot.  Rasmussen polls show Landrieu leading by a margin of 55% to 39%.  Southern Media & Opinion Research found a similar margin (Landrieu on top 50%-38%).  Only a Zogby poll (back in October of 2007) ever showed Kennedy with a lead, but pundits seem willing to dismiss its findings.  Now we know why Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne passed on the race.

So why is Landrieu doing so well?  The first hypothesis is that Republicans in general must be doing poorly, and Kennedy is simply being dragged down by the GOP. 

This belief can be seen in Louisiana’s open sixth district, where retiring Congressman Richard Baker once seemed to have an iron grip on the seat.  Not only had he faced token opposition since 1998, but redistricting boosted the Republicans’ fortunes in the region.  But Democrat and Republican polls now show the Democrat, State Representative Don Cazayoux actually leading former State Representative “Woody” Jenkins by a couple of points ahead of next month’s special election.  If the GOP can’t win in a tailor-made district in a red state, things have to be pretty bad for the party.

Of course, voters still have a bad aftertaste in their mouths from Jenkins’ flawed 1996 US Senate bid (where he ultimately lost the open seat to Landrieu) and may be seen as too conservative, which could make the poll an anomaly.  And it is just one district in the state.

How do other Republicans look to voters at the statewide level?  GOP Presidential candidate John McCain is actually leading both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, in a state that voted both times for Bill Clinton.  Bernie Pinsonat’s poll shows McCain with a seven point lead over the New York Senator, and a 51%-35% margin over the Illinois Senator.  And Republican Governor Bobby Jindal seems okay according to Louisiana voters.  A Southern Media & Opinion Research poll indicated that 47.2 percent of Louisiana found him “very favorable,” with another 29.9% thinking of him as “somewhat favorable.”

The second hypothesis indicates that perhaps the problem is with Kennedy running a poor campaign.  This view comes from those who remember his third place showing in the 2004 US Senate election.  Well Kennedy had been running ads touting his fiscal conservative record.  He also attended a high profile ceremony at the White House honoring the LSU Tigers national championship team.  So it isn’t as though he isn’t in the news, or is merely sitting on the sidelines.  And the other politician who looked at the race, Jay Dardenne was shown to be trailing Landrieu by similar numbers (52%-38%) last year.

The third hypothesis credits Mary Landrieu for her own advantages in recent surveys.  After a 0.2% win in 1996 and a 3.4% victory margin in 2002, voters may be warming up to the two-term Senator (especially compared to the “other” US Senator from the State).  The Center for Politics’ analysis of the race pointed out her seniority, position on the Senate Appropriations Committee, and chairing the FEMA oversight subcommittee demonstrate the kind of clout Louisiana wants.  And Pinsonat’s April poll found that 70 percent of voters had a favorable impression of her.

The race will likely tighten as November approaches, but the last thing the GOP needs in “the most vulnerable Senate Democrat of 2008” is for her to sport such large poll leads at this stage of the game.