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Early fundraising gives Senate clues

April 27, 2011 —

The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has released 1^st Quarter reports for US Senate candidates and the results – although more than a year and half before the 2012 election – give some early indications of the shape of next year’s five U.S. Senate races in the South. At this point, the conventional wisdom is confirmed by the money: The three GOP-held seats (MS, TN & TX) are favored to remain in Republican hands while the two Democratic seats (FL & VA) should be highly competitive. Details:

Florida: Republican challenger Mike Haridopolos substantially out-raised 2^nd term US Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the 1^st Quarter, bringing in $2,614,000 to Nelson’s $1,847,000. Nelson, however, outpaced him in cash-on-hand, with $4,564,000 to $2,515,000. The numbers confirm what everybody has been saying about Haridopolos, that as state Senate President, he will be a top-notch fundraiser. His strong start not only gives him some good headlines against Nelson, but may be discouraging to George LeMieux, with strong ties – of dubious utility – to former Gov. Charlie Crist (Ind.), and Adam Hasner, a favorite of the party’s right wing. Both LeMieux and Hasner have announced, but too late to be included in the 1^st Quarter reports. Haridopolos’ strong money showing may also discourage other GOPers considering the race, though well-heeled candidates can come out of no-where in Florida.

Mississippi: Republican Roger Wicker, who has been in office for just over three years, raised $471,000 and has $834,000 on hand. So far, Wicker is home free. “Nobody’s even scratching at it,” says one long-time observer about potential Wicker foes. A recent poll by Public Policy Polling (D) gave Wicker substantial leads over four prominent Democrats who have been mentioned as potential foes, beating ex-US Rep. Travis Childers 51-33, ex-Attorney General Mike Moore 48-38, ex-Governor Ronnie Musgrove 52-35 and ex-US Rep. Gene Taylor 48-36. None of these Democratic A-listers, however, have shown any interest in taking on Wicker.

Tennessee: US Sen. Bob Corker (R), who in his first term has made his mark as a pragmatic lawmaker comfortable dealing with the big economic issues, is also good at raising campaign funds. He brought in $1,875,000 and has $2,921,000 on hand. While the Democrats are sure to come up with a candidate, and there are Tea Party-type rumblings about a primary challenge, for now Corker has no announced opponent in either party and is a heavy favorite in the primary and the General.

Texas: Incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who lost a disastrous gubernatorial primary in 2010, is not seeking reelection. On the GOP side, several contenders are running for the open seat. Tom Leppert, mayor of Dallas and a successful businessman (real estate, construction and finance), raised $2,690,000 and has $2,592,000 on hand. Despite his early money advantage, Leppert “is not known outside the [Dallas] metroplex,” says Harvey Kronberg, publisher of The Quorum Report. Next, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz brought in $943,000, with $965,000 on hand. Cruz is likely to have support from a national constituency that favors electing Latino Republicans. Former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, with a business background, brought in $598,000 and has $1,250,000 on hand. Former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, an African-American with strong support on the GOP right, raised $419,000, with $369,000 on hand. And former Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, who “brings gender and some name ID to the table,” says Kronberg, raised $122,000, with $129,000 on hand. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, once considered the 800-lb. gorilla in the race, is having second thoughts, and says he will announce in June whether he will go for the Senate this year, or wait until 2014 and run for governor. The broad distribution of money among the contenders suggests a highly contested primary, with a runoff likely.

On the Democratic side, the likely contender is retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, who has described himself as socially progressive, fiscally conservative and an advocate of a strong defense. Sanchez’s Achilles’ heel is that he stepped down as commander of US troops in Iraq following the Abu Ghraib prisoner-abuse scandal. But Texas ain’t Massachusetts and Sanchez is being encouraged to run by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Former Comptroller John Sharp, who had previously said he would run for the seat, cancelled his FEC-authorized fundraising committee in February.

Virginia: Former US Sen. George Allen (R), who is trying to reclaim the seat he lost in 2006, raised $1,511,000, with $1,247,000 on hand. His two primary foes to his right include Hampton Roads lawyer David McCormick, who raised $125,000 and has $115,000 on hand, and Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke, who raised $55,000, with $47,000 on hand. McCormick is unknown and doesn’t look like he’s getting the funds to become known. Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, notes that Radtke, though woefully underfunded, “has been running a campaign,” a grass-roots effort with a strong Tea Party flavor. Several other right-leaning GOPers are looking at the race, but so far, it looks like Allen has the party’s contributors on his side big time.

For the Democrats, former governor and Democratic national chairman Tim Kaine entered the race after the 1^st Quarter ended, so there is no financial report for him. Of interest, however, is that US Rep. Bobby Scott (D), who says he will announce in July whether he will also seek the Democratic senate nomination, has raised almost no funds. Were Scott, in his 10^th term representing the 3^rd District, serious about a senate bid, he could be bringing in the bucks in his congressional campaign account, which could be transferred to a senate account. But Scott raised only $2,300 in the first three months of this year, and has only $28,400 on hand – hardly enough to jump-start a statewide campaign. Scott, an African-American, may be counting on support from black voters, who could make up about one-third of the Democratic Primary vote in Virginia, but a turn-out operation aimed at those voters would still require substantial funds. Moreover, given Kaine’s strong ties to President Obama, solid black support for Scott would be unlikely. The betting is that Scott will not run unless reapportioning legislators “do him dirty on his congressional district,” says Sabato.