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New InsiderAdvantage Poll Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton campaign on life support

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff

April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%. The results are:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 42%
Undecided: 12%*

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.

“It is almost impossible to imagine that the African-American vote will not consolidate to the levels we have seen in other states, which would put Obama closer to 70%-plus with blacks. Clinton would need a large, disproportionate turnout of white voters to have a real shot at pulling off a substantial win in the contest.

“Some of our previous polls in other states have shown a pattern of Clinton coming from polling deficits to eek out slim victories over Obama. We’ve seen this happen several times, with Clinton surging in the final week leading up to the vote.

“She will have to pull off a near-miracle to win Pennsylvania, to say nothing of her winning by a substantial margin, which she almost certainly needs to stay alive in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes,” said Towery.  Click here for crosstabs.

*These numbers add up to 99%. Rounded-off percentages don't always add up to exactly 100%. 

 

   
   

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