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Oxendine still leads pack in Georgia GOP governor's race

By Gary Reese

April 6, 2010

Georgia state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine continues to outpace the pack in his bid to win the  Republican primary for governor. Here are the results from the poll, which was conducted by  InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV/Atlanta:

John Oxendine: 26%

Karen Handel: 18%

Nathan Deal: 9%

Eric Johnson: 5%

Other 11%

No Opinion: 31%

The poll was conducted April 5 among 396 likely voters in the Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary, for a margin of error of plus or minus 5%. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.

All InsiderAdvantage surveys are conducted using IVR automated technology. This technology helped make InsiderAdvantage one of the most accurate pollsters in the nation in the 2008 presidential race, and allowed IA to poll the 2009 Atlanta mayor's race runoff to within .7% of the election's outcome.

Analysis:

The high undecideds are to be expected at this still-early juncture in the race; any poll showing otherwise would be suspect. Karen Handel has made some headway in recent weeks. She’s probably picking up some former supporters of Congressman Nathan Deal, who has gotten recent bad publicity about the ethics allegations against him. Oddly, most of the support for Handel, the former secretary of state, continues to come more from men than from women.

Former state Senate Minority Leader Eric Johnson has bought a big cable TV ad campaign to air this weekend, during the Masters Golf Tournament. That might boost his numbers, particularly among Republican men. Still, the key remains for someone in this race to be the first with the most broadcast TV advertising, and to keep raising the money needed to sustain that TV blitz. 

Said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage: “My expectation is that this race won’t solidify until the later weeks of June and early July. At this early stage, the odds look strong for John Oxendine to make the primary runoff.” 

 

   
   

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