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Kentucky US Senate race hot in both parties

April 7, 2010 —

Republican US Sen. Jim Bunning (KY) got more or less forced out of running for a third term, but the battle to replace him is not going according to plan. The Republican establishment candidate for Bunning’s vacant seat is Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, 37, who initially had the backing of most of the GOP establishment. Grayson, however, is not sailing into the nomination, but is the underdog in the fast-approaching May 18 primary against Rand Paul, 47, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist who has never held public office. As chairman of Kentucky Taxpayers United, however, he traveled over the state giving speeches to right-leaning audiences; he also allied himself early on with the TEA Party movement.  

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the most powerful force in Kentucky politics, held a fundraiser for Grayson some months ago, but has not publicly endorsed him and apparently does not intend to. And US Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY), another sub rosa Grayson backer, has not campaigned publicly for the secretary of state either. Rogers, whose 5^th District is a vote-rich Republican area, “is saying nothing publicly,” says Kentucky Roll Call publisher Lowell Reese, “but everybody expects him to try to help Grayson.” That won’t be easy, however; one recent poll showed Paul up 9 points in Pulaski County, Roger’s home bailiwick. Presumably McConnell and Rogers have gotten cold feet on their support for Grayson because they can read the – er – tea leaves, and have not wanted to get cross-wise with the GOP base. (One theory is that McConnell might end up needing freshman US Sen. Paul’s vote for majority leader, especially if rightward maverick US Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) challenges McConnell for the leadership slot.) 

With the primary some six weeks away, “Grayson is running out of time,” says Reese, “and he’s trying… a Hail Mary.” Grayson’s attack-spot asserts that Paul “wonders whether 9/11 was our fault,” and includes videos of 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul and the Rev. Jeremiah Wright making statements implying as much. Rand Paul responded quickly in a series of hard-hitting spots in which he says to Grayson, “Your shameful TV ad is a lie and it dishonors you.” Coinciding with Grayson’s ad, former Vice-President Dick Cheney endorsed Grayson, contending he is “right on issues that matter both on fiscal responsibility and on national security.” Cheney also taped an automatic phone message for the Grayson campaign, stressing national security and terrorism. Whether Cheney, whose endorsement of Kay Bailey Hutchison did not help her in the Texas GOP gubernatorial primary, will be more helpful to Grayson is problematical. The former veep, incidentally, is not the first big-name out-of-state GOPer to get involved in the race. Several weeks ago, Sarah Palin came out for Paul, though she has not been visible on his behalf since. 

Al Cross, long-time Bluegrass political journalist, says “People aren’t focusing on national security. There is a deep streak of old-fashioned money Republicanism in the state. Now this streak is being revived by Tea Party stuff and Paul’s candidacy.” And Reese notes that “The Tea Party is an unorganized philosophy that’s pretty strong in Kentucky.”  

Thus, Paul is now a substantial favorite to win the primary. A SurveyUSA poll taken in the first week of March showed Paul with a 42 percent to 27 percent lead over Grayson. Paul’s major strength is that he has tapped into the conservative populist reaction to President Obama and his policies, while Grayson, as Kentucky’s secretary of state, has had a largely non-ideological role in state government.  

The Democratic contest is getting less attention, but is no less contentious. Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (D), who has the luke-warm support of Gov. Steve Beshear (D), faces state Attorney General Jack Conway (D), a fixture of Democratic politics in the state. Conway was deemed the early favorite, but goofed at the Fancy Farm picnic when he used profanity in his stump speech, and quickly fell behind in the polls. The two Democrats have parted company a bit on health care, explains Cross, with Conway equivocating until it passed, then saying he would have voted for it, and Mongiardo equivocating before and after its passage. Conway says he would welcome having Obama campaign for him, while Mongiardo says he would not.  

Surprisingly, a group of labor unions unanimously endorsed Mongiardo over the somewhat more liberal Conway. One explanation is that, despite his assertion of humble roots, Conway, who grew up in Louisville and went to Duke University, is considered a bit too much a part of the elite in the view of some Democrats of a populist bent. By contrast, Mongiardo has a folksy warmth that wins him support among lots of voters.  

Conway still has the money edge, with an estimated $1 million cash on hand to Mongiardo’s $700,000. In the closing stretch, Conway is hitting TV pretty hard, mainly trying to boost his name ID, which is surprisingly low considering that he is the state’s attorney general. Mongiardo is not yet on television, but benefits from the 850,000 votes he got when he ran a losing race against Bunning in 2004. All things considered, Mongiardo is the better bet in the primary. 

The General Election is likely to be competitive, with a definite edge to the GOP. A Rasmussen Reports poll released April 6 showed Paul leading Mongiardo 52 percent to 37 percent and leading Conway 50 percent to 36 percent. Running slightly better, Grayson leads Mongiardo 53 percent to 33 percent and leads Conway 52 percent to 32 percent. Much of either Democrat’s problem is that Obama got only 41 percent in Kentucky in 2008 and is less popular than that here now. One Democratic insider notes that a poll in one populous county showed that Obama’s favorability rating was 30 percent -- among Democrats. Cross notes “people have not warmed up to Obama down here,” citing “a latent streak of racism.” The health care bill in particular is unpopular here, and Conway’s refusal to challenge it in court could be a major issue should he upset Mongiardo and win the Democratic Primary.  

Nevertheless, several factors will help the Democratic nominee. Either is likely to be well funded, based on their money-raising records so far. And a slew of local races will be on the Kentucky ballot in November, three-fourths of them currently held by Democrats, which could bring out a strong Democratic vote. Nevertheless, color this one Likely Republican.