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Oil spills and political futures

May 11, 2010 —

Congressional hearings have commenced about the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster, with plenty of chest-thumping and finger-pointing to come. But two factors seem to be preventing most public officials in Washington and the Gulf states from taking drastic measures just yet.

First, no one knows how extensive or ultimately damaging and costly the spill will be. The oil rupture itself hasn’t been plugged. And nature – wind and weather, ocean currents – will have the final say on whether and how much oil reaches the Gulf shores. (Hurricane season starts June 1.)

Second, the issue is politically complicated for many players. A few examples will illustrate: Next to the IRS, the US government agency that brings the most money to the federal Treasury is the Minerals Management Service. It works closely with companies like BP and Exxon to find and drill for oil and natural gas. That’s an apparent conflict of interest when it comes to Washington’s role in safeguarding the Gulf and America’s Southern shores. It will be also be an easy political gesture for the Democrats: Congress will separate the two conflicting functions of MMS, and thus the Democrats will have "done something."

In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal is trying to get the Corps of Engineers to allow waters between the state’s barrier islands to be blocked by artificial sand deposits. But when he advocated this a while back for protection from hurricanes, environmentalists said that it would harm wildlife. 

Above all, and ironically, the oil spill may have put the congressional Democrats' cap-and-trade legislation on ice, at least for now. One of the bill's components was a a provision that would allow for more, not less, offshore drilling.

And then there’s gasoline prices as we approach the usual summer spike. With roughly a quarter of America’s domestic supply of oil coming from Gulf rigs, it’s not realistic to think drilling is going to stop. Not every American voter will be personally affected by tar balls on the beach. But gasoline prices are another matter. Democrats in Washington, and mostly Republican governors and lawmakers in Gulf states, must be careful not to overreact to the oil disaster by overly restricting future drilling.

If oil ever touches American shores in large volume, then public pressure will ratchet up, and so will political noise and perhaps action. For now, shrimpers have been shrimping and oil-drenched birds are being counted by the ones. Tourism, especially in Florida, has suffered, but that’s more because of alarmist media accounts than facts on the ground and in the water.

Worst-case scenarios have water seeping into the Florida Everglades, flowing into Chesapeake Bay, and even ruining commercial fishing at the Grand Banks off Newfoundland. Such epic environmental damage would be a policy and political nightmare especially for the ruling Democrats. Drilling would still need to continue, but pressure to fundamentally change American energy policy might then mount to an intolerable level for office-holders.   

As for Gulf state governors, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist are a study in contrasts. Barbour is preaching a wait-and-see attitude. Will the oil reach his state, and how damaging will it be if it does? He points out that, so far, most of the oil in the water is thin and comparatively non-threatening; unlike the dense oil spill from Exxon Valdez in 1989.

Crist is calling for a special legislative session right away to work towards a state constitutional amendment that would forever ban near-shore drilling in Florida. Crist, of course, is running for US Senate with no party affiliation. Recent polls seem to indicate that for him to win, he must raid liberal voters away from Kendrick Meek, the rather weak Democrat in the race. In fact, it was Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink who was the first prominent state elected official in Florida to call for a special session.   

Alabama Gov. Bob Riley has acted a solid imitation of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who earned high praise from many Floridians for his obsessive canvassing of that state during the rash of hurricanes in 2004 and 2005. Riley has been to the Alabama coast almost daily since the April 20 oil-rig explosion. Mobile Bay stands ready to be closed with booms if oil gets close.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry mentioned that the rig explosion might have been an “act of God,” for which he caught flak for everything from implying that Jehovah conceived the accident, to making excuses for his Texas oil-company supporters.

In the end, BP, Halliburton and other corporate giants will be endlessly scolded and demonized, and few Republicans will dare to disagree very loudly. New regulations will be passed, including far stiffer fines on industry for the cleanups of spills, and for damage payments to affected citizens. In the long run, domestic energy prices likely will remain the main mover of substantive political action.