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Oxendine still leads Georgia GOP governor's race

By Gary Reese

May 19, 2010

With the political campaign season ready to begin in earnest in Georgia, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine still leads the pack among Republican hopefuls for governor, according to a new poll from InsiderAdvantage and WSB-TV/Atlanta.  

Here are the results of the poll:  

Q: If the election to determine the Republican candidate for governor were held today, who would you vote for to be the Republican nominee for governor?

John Oxendine: 23%
Nathan Deal: 15%
Handel: 14%
Eric Johnson: 5%
Jeff Chapman: 2%
Ray McBerry: 2%
Otis Putnam: 0%
Undecided/No opinion: 39%

(Editor's note: The original release of the poll findings incorrectly had Karen Handel at 15% and Nathan Deal at 14%. The reverse is correct, as listed above.)

The poll was conducted by InsiderAdvantage for WSB-TV on May 18 among 423 likely voters in the Georgia Republican primary for governor. The margin of error is 5%. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.

All InsiderAdvantage surveys are conducted using IVR automated technology. This technology helped make InsiderAdvantage one of the most accurate pollsters in the nation in the 2008 presidential race, and allowed IA to poll the 2009 Atlanta mayor’s race runoff to within .7% of the election’s outcome.

Analysis from Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage

“As the candidates start to enter the time when they’re appearing more and more on local TV news, the public starts to pay more attention to the race. When campaigns enter this phase, it’s not uncommon to see the number of undecided voters fluctuate, and even increase.” [Editor’s note: The undecideds in the GOP governor’s race rose to 39% in this poll from 31% in an InsiderAdvantage poll of the race conducted in April.]

“It’s likely we’ll see fluctuations in polling results over the next month or so. By around the middle of June the race will begin to take a more definite shape as the candidates start to spend substantial money on TV ads and other high-profile political media,” he said.  “By early July, we’ll likely now who the definite frontrunners are in this and other statewide races.

“Our polling indicates that voter turnout in the Georgia Republican primary July 20 may be historically large, especially given that gubernatorial election years in Georgia – ‘off-years’ for national politics – usually draw comparatively fewer voters to the polls than do elections in presidential years.

“Polling to date also suggests that turnout for the Democratic primary may be quite light. We should get a better read on this possibility when InsiderAdvantage polls the Democratic governor’s race next week,” said Towery.  


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