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Texas GOPers Maneuvering for 2010

May 19, 2008 — With Republican prospects looking increasingly worrisome for this fall, a number of Texas Republicans are beginning to look to the elections two years from now as a good time to fulfill their political ambitions. For one thing, if Barack Obama is the president, his administration and what will almost surely be a Democratic congress could be on the defensive two years from now. Higher taxes for at least some voters could sour them on the new regime, and other problems -- such as rising gasoline prices -- may have gotten even worse under Democratic rule, offering Republican candidates better opportunities than this November.

Republican Gov. Rick Perry has already stated publicly that he plans to seek re-election in 2010, although there are some doubters among Texas insiders that he will actually stay in the race. They cite his minority 2006 victory (39% in a four-way race) and his low approval rating (34% positive, 64% negative in a Rasmussen Reports May 1 survey) as reasons he may figure its time to let someone else run the state.

But even if Perry runs, there are few signs that his fellow GOPers are standing aside for him. US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who has indicated she may not seek re-election at the end of her current term in 2012, has been sounding like she may run for governor in 2010 -- whether or not Perry runs. However, she made similar noises in 2006 and ended up staying in the Senate and supporting Perry’s re-election. Hutchison’s office says she has given no indication as to when she will make her decision.

Another gubernatorial possibility is Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R). His office says he has given no indication about his plans for 2010 and that he is focused on the 2009 legislative session. He has been avoiding public conflict with Perry, perhaps to avoid splitting his party, but by 2010, things could change.

State Sen. Dan Patrick (R), a conservative radio station owner and talk show host who has a strong following in the Houston area, is getting mentioned for the governorship. One of his supporters has already erected a 50 ft. banner on Interstate 10 boosting Patrick’s candidacy. An evangelical Christian author and a conservative stalwart on social and economic issues, he endorsed Mike Huckabee’s presidential candidacy. Patrick could prove a strong presence in the Republican Primary.

A fifth possibility for governor is former Secretary of State Roger Williams (R). Williams has been a successful fundraiser for President Bush and is currently heading the Texas GOP’s Victory 2008 drive (which on Saturday tested its get-out-the-vote drive by aiming to contact 100,000 voters in one day). And if Hutchison does run for governor or decides to resign before the 2010 election, Williams might be a US Senate contender.

On the chance that Hutchison’s Senate seat will be vacant in 2010, several other Republicans are also looking at a US Senate bid. Perhaps because the seat is currently held by a woman, two of the potential Senate candidates most mentioned are women.

State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R) is planning to form an exploratory committee for a Senate bid soon, according to press reports. A former mayor of Plano, Shapiro chairs the state Senate Education Committee. She got favorable publicity for authoring a number of successful bills, known collectively as “Ashley’s Law,” to help protect minors from sexual predators. Shapiro demonstrated her bona fides with the Bush Administration recently when she was chosen, along with 80 others, to accompany the President on his trip to Israel in celebration of its 60^th anniversary.

US Rep. Kay Granger (R), a former mayor of Fort Worth, is serving her sixth term in Congress and currently serves in the House GOP leadership as Republican Conference Vice Chairman. She serves on the Appropriations Committee on subcommittees dealing with Homeland Security and Military Construction. On her congressional website, she highlights three issues, National Security, Economic Security and Family Security, not a bad slogan for a US Senate bid. In a recent interview with the Fort Worth Star-Telegram,

Granger said that a Senate race was “a possibility. I can’t say I’m going to, but I haven’t closed it out.”

On the Democratic side, while not a single one of the 29 statewide elected officials in Texas is a Democrat, Houston Mayor Bill White (D) is considered a top prospect for governor or US Senator in 2010. With recent trends in state legislative races -- and possible gains this fall -- Democrats may see the election in two years as opportune for them. One conservative observer notes that while White no longer has “the Katrina glow” around him, for his 2005 efforts to help New Orleans refugees, “some Republicans are somewhat nervous about him.” White, like several of the Republicans, is likely to keep his eye on what Sen. Hutchison decides.