Latest InsiderAdvantage poll has Obama back up in North Carolina, Clinton winning Indiana
Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff
May 2, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton headed toward a split decision next Tuesday. Obama has regained his lead in North Carolina after our poll showed him falling behind earlier in the week, while Clinton appears to have a solid lead in Indiana. Our April 29 InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll raised eyebrows when it showed Hillary Clinton nudging past Obama with a 44% to 42% lead in North Carolina. So we polled it again May 1. Here are the results: Barack Obama 49%
Hillary Clinton 44%
Undecided 7% The telephone survey was conducted May 1 by InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research among 611 registered likely voters in the May 6 North Carolina primary. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8%, and all data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation. Said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery: “As I commented on FoxNew’s ‘Hannity & Colmes’ after our April 29 poll that showed Clinton suddenly, surprisingly leading, Obama will likely end up winning in North Carolina. But the double-digit lead he enjoyed as late as mid-April has vanished. “The reason is brutally simple: White Democratic voters are trending towards Clinton. The white vote, which has switched from overwhelmingly supporting Obama prior to this past week’s series of stories concerning Rev. Jeremiah Wright, continues to now lean towards Clinton. “African-American voters, as we expected, are now consolidating in the Obama corner. My best guess is that Obama will win in North Carolina by a margin of between 4% to 8%. An InsiderAdvantage survey conducted April 30-May 1 of 478 registered likely voters in Indiana’s Democratic presidential primary shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 47% to 40%. An important note: It is illegal to poll using automated calls in Indiana. The Indiana attorney general’s office informed InsiderAdvantage that the state, the only one in the nation which bans automated calls even for research and polling purposes, is already preparing to take action against undisclosed companies that used automated calling to poll the Democratic presidential race. InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Many of the top firms are now utilizing advanced automated surveys, which have proved more reliable than traditional phone rooms this season. My guess is that the automated systems, which are used by many top firms, including ours, have provided better results because of the ‘anonymity’ the system provides when asking respondents to deal with an often racially charged race on the Democratic side. “Consequently, our ability to have accurately polled the winner in most contests this season is hampered by this constraint in Indiana. This is a phone room poll, and phone room polls are now no longer, in my judgment, as reliable as automated polls for horserace contests such as these primaries. “For the record, InsiderAdvantage is not one of the firms that violated Indiana’s laws, although we believe their law to be a disservice to the public, and to the ability to gather accurate public opinion.” Here are the results of our survey of the May 6 Indiana Democratic primary. The sample size is 478 registered likely voters. Data have been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error plus or minus 4%. Clinton: 47%
Obama: 40%
Undecided: 13% |
