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Alabama governor's race getting crowded

May 4, 2009 —

With incumbent Gov. Bob Riley (R) term-limited, plenty of politicos in both parties are gearing up to run for governor of Alabama next year. Although fundraising cannot begin until June 1, one year before the 2010 primaries, some candidates have already announced and others are busy testing the waters.

On the Republican side, businessman Tim James, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore, ADECA (Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs) Director Bill Johnson, two-year colleges systems Chancellor Bradley Byrne, Hoover Mayor Tony Petelos and state Rep. Robert Bentley are the major prospects at this time. James has already announced and Bentley has told the media he will announce soon. Ivey has formed an exploratory committee. The others are in various stages of considering the race.

James, 46, “is the most active on the ground,” says a well-connected Alabama Republican. James was the first to announce, in January 2008; he also ran in 2002, coming in third with 9% in the primary won by Riley. James, a businessman (construction), has extra name identification as the son of former Gov. Fob James, who served as governor both as a Democrat and as a Republican.  Candidate James has been busy moving around the state and has garnered the endorsement of US Rep. Bob Aderholt and John Giles, former head of the Alabama Christian Coalition.

Bentley, 66, who is in his second term in the legislature, confirmed last week to a Birmingham television station that he will run for governor; he will make his official announcement on May 13. Bentley, a successful dermatologist from Tuscaloosa, served on the 2008 Republican National Platform Committee.

Byrne, 48, a former state senator as well as an educator, has yet to formally enter the race, but “the business community is starting to gel around Bradley Byrne,” says a GOP insider, who suggests that James and the reform-oriented Byrne are the early frontrunners for the Republican Primary.

Ivey, 64, has formed an exploratory committee to run for governor, but has not yet announced. In 2006, she was re-elected state treasurer with the largest number of votes in a contested race, and was an early frontrunner in the 2010 governor’s race. However, she has caught some flak because the state’s Prepaid Affordable College Tuition (PACT), which she oversees as state treasurer, lost about half its assets in the recent stock market meltdown. It is unclear whether those who invested in PACT to pay for their children’s college education will be able to withdraw adequate funds when they are needed.   On the positive side, as the only woman in the race, Ivey would get a boost toward a spot in the runoff.

Moore, 62, was impeached as Alabama Supreme Court chief justice in 2003 after violating a federal court order by installing a two-and-half-ton monument to the Ten Commandments in the lobby of the state’s high court. His defiance of the feds helped him with some voters, but turned off even more, who didn’t like their state becoming the butt of jokes for Moore’s action. He’s been lying low for several years, but one of his key lieutenants has recently been making calls around the state on his behalf. Moore opposed Riley in the 2006 primary, getting 33% to Riley’s 67%.

Johnson, 50, has strong ties to Gov. Riley, having served as his campaign manager in his 2002 gubernatorial campaign and served in his cabinet. Johnson “is the best operational politician in the state,” says our GOP source, who notes that Johnson, a former member of the Birmingham city council, has made a large number of friends throughout the state by handing out grants as ADECA director.

Petelos, 55, is mayor of Hoover, the fifth largest city in the state, where he has made a reputation for cutting-edge innovations. The city’s municipal fleet, for example, runs on biomass fuel. As commissioner of the Department of Human Resources under Govs. Fob James (R) and Don Siegelman (D), he might be able to attract some bi-partisan support. He’s also “an extremely affable guy,” says our GOP insider, who adds that if Petelos runs, the race “gets really interesting.” Petelos expects to make a decision by June 1.

The Democrats’ potential field is somewhat smaller, but it has more heavyweights. The two who have announced are US Rep. Artur Davis and state Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks. State Sen. Roger Bedford and Alabama Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb are considering the race as well.

Davis, 41, is in his fourth term as the congressman from Alabama’s 7^th District (Birmingham, etc.) He announced his candidacy for governor in February. If elected, the Harvard-educated lawyer would become Alabama’s first African-American governor. Very much in the Barack Obama mold, Davis was at Harvard during the time Obama was there. He is somewhat moderate -- 60% liberal, 40% conservative in 2006, says National Journal -- and has gotten along well with Birmingham’s business establishment. With 50% of the Democratic Primary turnout likely to be black and with significant appeal among some white voters, Davis is the early favorite in the primary.

In the General, however, he is likely to face a tough race. Obama, according to exit polls, won only 10% of whites in Alabama last November and lost the state by 39% to McCain’s 60%. However, many white voters now know a lot about Davis and may be more willing to support him than they were Illinois’s Obama. (Last year the second whitest county in the state elected a black candidate to the Alabama House of Representatives.) And he has been endorsed by Peggy Wallace Kennedy, the late Gov. George Wallace’s daughter. Davis has some $1 million in his congressional account, which he can use in his gubernatorial bid.

Sparks, 57, is finishing his eighth year as agriculture commissioner. He has been rather aggressive in taking issue with Davis, most recently questioning whether Obama Administration funds will be sufficient to compensate black farmers for past discrimination by the US Agriculture Department. He should be strong in rural areas.

Bedford, 52, is now in his sixth term in the state senate, where he chairs the powerful Senate Finance and Taxation committee. He ran for the US Senate in 1996, garnering 45% to against Jeff Sessions’s (R) 52%. Bedford is from North Alabama, which still has lots of white Democrats. In an interview with SPR, Bedford said in his recent travels around the state, he has “received lots of encouragement, particularly from elected officials.” He has already hired experienced pollster Harrison Hickman (D), who will be in the field with an issues survey soon. Bedford believes he will need $6 million to $8 million for the primary and a similar amount for the General Election. “Nobody’s going to work any harder and nobody’s going to raise any more money,” says Bedford. He expects to make a firm decision in about three weeks.

Cobb, midway through her first term as state Supreme Court chief justice, is on most short lists for Democratic gubernatorial candidates. She was elected to her current post on a statewide ballot, giving her significant name ID. Cobb would benefit from being the only woman in the Democratic race. Prior to that, she served two terms on the state court of criminal appeals.

While handicapping the outcome of the Democratic Primary might be premature at this point, the demographics of the turnout are likely to ensure that Davis, at a minimum, makes the runoff. Whether supporters of the other candidates would rally around a white candidate in a runoff is unclear. For starters, many of Alabama’s white voters for whom race matters may no longer vote in the Democratic Primary. And while Davis has not always had the strongest relationship with the state’s other black leaders -- he was supporting Obama when many others were backing Hillary Clinton -- Davis is likely have a large majority of Alabama’s black voters in his corner by June 2010. Moreover, he is well on his way to having a well-financed, well-staffed campaign.

As for the General Election, that could well be another story, depending on what happens in Washington as well as in Alabama.